Justin Verlander

There has been a lot said about the Tigers offense in 2008 and how many runs they might score. Some say 1000 is not out of the question, I say they are on crack. 900 isn't out of the question, though, and they should definitely have one of the 3 or 4 highest scoring teams in the majors. But what about the pitching? Let's start with the brightest of the Tigers pitching stars.

You know the name, you know the game: Justin Verlander

He just turned 25 a few weeks ago, yet his career list of accomplishments is already growing to be quite impressive.

• 2nd overall pick out of Old Dominion in the 2004 draft
• 2006 American League rookie of the year
• 2007 American All Star
• 7th place in the 2006 American League Cy Young voting
• 5th place in the 2007 American League Cy Young voting
• Highest W/L percentage in the American League in 2007
• First Detroit Tiger to pitch a no hitter since 1984
• Started 2 games in the 2006 World Series

But beyond just the anecdotes and traditional stats, Verlander has been putting together quite the meteoric rise up the MLB pitching heirarchy. Consider his improvements from 2005 (spot callup starts) to 2006 (rookie season) to 2007 (full blown ace):


Wins and Losses
2005: 0-2
2006: 17-9
2007: 18-6

ERA
2005: 7.15
2006: 3.63
2007: 3.66

Batting Average Allowed
2005: .313
2006: .266
2007: .233

On Base Percentage Allowed
2005: .389
2006: .328
2007: .309

Slugging Percentage Allowed
2005: .479
2006: .414
2007: .358

Strikeouts per 9 IP
2005: 5.56
2006: 6.00
2007: 8.17

Strikeout to Walk Ratio
2005: 1.40
2006: 2.07
2007: 2.73

Home Runs per 9 IP
2005: 0.77
2006: 1.02
2007: 0.89


What's not to love about this kid's career trajectory? He is consistently improving his numbers across the board showing better control and more strikeouts and allowing fewer baserunners and fewer hard hit balls. He just turned 25 and has superstardom ahead of him. Considering the offensive support he is likely to garner this year, he must be considered amongst the favorites to win the Cy Young in 2008.

A guess at some not out of the question numbers for Justin Verlander in 2008:

32 starts, 210 innings, 22-6, 3.11 ERA, 230 strikeouts, 70 walks


Heck, 23 or 24 wins isn't out of the question for this kid with a high scoring offense backing him up, especially with his skyrocketing strikeout rate. Did you know that from June 1st on last year, his K rate jumped from 6.62 to 8.96? Yep, he started out slowly but then posted a number of big K games.

Slow start to 2008

So it's been a slow start to 2008 for blogging. Guess I've been too busy (minor understatement). But spring is here and spring training is under way. Detroit made a splash this offseason by acquiring Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins, a move which instantly put them as one of the World Series favorites this year. Everybody knows Miguel Cabrera is a great hitter, but just how great? Consider this...

• he doesn't turn 25 until April, having already played 4.5 seasons in the majors
• 4 straight seasons of 100+ RBI
• 3 seasons of 100+ runs scored
• 3 straight .300+ batting average seasons
• 3 seasons of 30+ home runs
• 4 straight All Star game appearances
• 3 straight seasons in the top 10 in intentional walks

Of Cabrera's 10 most similar hitters through age 24 according to Baseball-Reference, 9 are either in the Hall of Fame (Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Medwick, Al Kaline, and Mickey Mantle) or soon to be (Ken Griffey Jr, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero).

And he's just now starting to get serious about playing baseball? Watch out American League.

Over the last three seasons, from age 22-24, Cabrera put up a batting line of .327/.405/.564 which is out of this world for somebody so young. For comparison, Albert Pujols hit .334/.416/.628 at the same age in a better hitters park and he's one of the all time greats at that age.

He's that good and he's that young. The sky is the limit for this kid and he's easily the best young hitter the Tigers have had since I've been alive and probably since most fans today have been alive. Hopefully they can lock him up for the long term.

Cameron Maybin

I've been a little slowed down by some side projects the last few weeks, but I have noticed that Cameron Maybin got the callup to AA Erie this week. And my, oh my, what a debut. In his first 2 games, he is 2/6 with 2 HRs and 2 walks against 2 strikeouts and 4 runs scored and 2 RBI.

I'm guessing he starts next season at Erie and if he tears it up, he'll likely be up to Toledo soon thereafter while knocking on the door in Detroit. Not bad for a kid that just turned 20 a few months ago. I'll return to some Michigan blogging this week if time allows.

Pitching

The Tigers have pitching and lots of it. Since Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson are now back and rookie league ball has opened play this past week, let's talk a little bit about the Tigers current and future pitchers. Who better to start with than the 2 young studs of the rotation, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman.

Justin Verlander - 24 years old, RHP. You might have noticed that he tossed a no hitter last week. What you might not have noticed is that his strikeout rate has been steadily climbing this year which is a phenomenal sign for the future of this star in the making. Last year, Justin put up good W/L and ERA numbers, but his K numbers were very mundane. You might say, so what? But strikeout rates are excellent predictors of future success. It was a bit of a strange stat, however, because Verlander had excellent strikeout numbers in both college and the minors and it looks like he has finally regained the magic touch.

2007 stats: 9-2, 2.78 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.89 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.74 HR/9

What this means for the future? I believe it is spelled A-C-E. The kid is holding opponents to a paltry .213/.299/328 hitting line this year which is awesome for a 24 year old. If he continues to get better, their will be multiple Cy Youngs in his future.


Jeremy Bonderman - 24 years old, RHP. If Verlander has been Batman this year, Bonderman is definitely Robin. He got no luck in his first five starts with all no decisions, but now he is getting the run support and has run off 8 consecutive victories. Once again this year, he's a little bit snake bit from the defense putting up excellent peripheral stats but struggling just a bit with the ERA. The good news is, though, that he just keeps getting better every single year.

2007 stats: 8-0. 4.01 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9

What this means for the future? He better wear shades it's so bright. His season long numbers are nearly identical to Verlander's which is scary good. I mean 4.5 strikeouts for every walk? Puts him in elite company. If he ever figures out how to throw a good change consistently, he might have an even higher ceiling than Verlander (if that's even possible). As for now, Verlander appears to be putting it together after his no-no so I'll give him the teeniest edge.


Andrew Miller - 22 years old, LHP. This kid is likely the future 3rd member of a dominant trio alongside Verlander and Bonderman (Millanderman?). Tonight, he'll make his 4th big league start in Atlanta on ESPN's game of the week. He's a big kid with a good fastball and a great slider. His forte is inducing groundballs, but he can also get the punch out.

2007 stats: 2-1, 3.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.75 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9

What it means for the future? Miller will likely get hit a little bit this year. He also still needs to work on his control. But his kid has a future as a strikeout and groundout machine from the leftside which blends in nicely with the righthanded power arms the Tigers already have.


Kenny Rogers - 42 years old, LHP. The Gambler was last seen in October hurling 23 consecutive shutout innings in one of the greatest single postseason performances I have ever seen by a pitcher. He missed the first 2.5 months of the season after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot from his left arm. Yesterday, he returned with a vengeance to the Tigers rotation hurling 6 shutout innings.

2007 stats: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 7.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9

What it means for the future? Kenny might not have many years left for the Tigers (is this his last?) but he has plenty of gas in the tank to be a very good pitcher in 2007. The past few years he has done better in the first half of the season before faltering down the stretch. Considering he is just now getting going, it isn't unreasonable to think he might be able to power through the rest of the season with his A stuff. He also is a great resource for the youngsters in the rotation and I suspect he'll have some excellent teaching points for Andrew Miller.


Nate Robertson - 29 years old, LHP. Coming into this season, Nasty Nate had lowered his ERA in each of his first 5 seasons in the bigs. In 2007, he got off to a hot start before getting shelled in May. A stint on the 15 day DL for a "dead arm" is over and he'll back in the rotation this week. Will he return to his old self? Well, 6 innings of no hit ball in AA suggest he will which would be excellent news for the team.

2007 stats: 4-6, 5.07 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 4.66 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9

What does it mean for the future? I think it is quite likely that Nate did have a dead arm and if he gets his stuff back he should return to being a very good left handed starter capable of an ERA around 4.00 and some decent strikeout numbers. If not, he might be trade bait this offseason.


Chad Durbin - 29 years old, RHP. The Durbinator had a good 2006 for the Mudhens and basically took Kenny Rogers spot in the rotation this year. His MLB career to date was nothing to write home about, however he has been a major bright spot in 2007 for the Tigers even allowing them to trade both Mike Maroth and Wil Ledezma.

2007 stats: 6-3, 4.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.71 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9

What this means for the future? He's got himself a spot locked down as a long reliever and spot starter with his quality work this year.


Zach Miner - 25 years old, RHP. It's hard to believe this kid is only 25, but he is and he is actually a pretty good pitcher. He has worked out of the pen this year after being the #5 starter last year, but his numbers are even better this year.

2007 stats: 0-1, 2.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.15 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9

What this means for the future? Sure it's only been a little over 11 innings out of the pen this year, but Miner is a keeper. His career ERA now sits at 4.57 and for a ground ball pitcher his 2/1 K/BB ratio over his career is very nice. He is a solid player and would be a nice #5 starter for nearly any team in the league. As it stands, he is just another cog in the Tigers pitching machine.

How about off to the minor leagues now? Apologies to guys like Eugolio De La Cruz and Joel Zumaya, but your future is in the bullpen and I'm not talking about that today.

Jon Connolly - 23 years old, LHP, Toledo Mudhens. This lefty has already been traded once from the Tigers and then resigned as a free agent. This year, he has regained some confidence and has pitched well between Erie and Toledo.

2007 stats (combined): 4-3, 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.08 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9

What this means for the future? All around, those are excellent numbers for a 23 year old between AA and AAA. He has really been tough to hit and has also shown excellent control. He is making quite a resurgence this year on the prospect lists and now probably has to be considered one of the better young pitchers in the Tigers organization. He will, however, need to show this isn't a fluke by continuing to pitch well in the 2nd half because thse numbers are significantly better than 2006 across the board.


Virgil Vasquez - 24 years old, RHP, Toledo Mudhens. Virgil got called up to make 1 start for Detroit this year and got shelled. Fortunately, he has been doing much better in Toledo.

2007 stats: 7-2, 4.37 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.42 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.61 HR/9

What it means for the future? Virgil is a good pitching prospect. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but still strikes out a ton of batters. You'll notice his K rate is the highest of any player listed thus far. However, his HR allowed rate is also the highest and he has never been known as a ground ball pitcher. Doesn't seem like a super high ceiling kind of guy, but he could blossom into a solid #3 starter in the bigs in 3-4 years. Then again, that would probably make him a #5 at best in Detroit so he could definitely be trade bait.


Jordan Tata - 25 years old, RHP, Toledo Mudhens. Tata was a very good pitching prospect last year, but he missed the first 2 months of this season with injury. He's back now, and slowly getting his stuff back.

2007 stats: 1-1, 3.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3.91 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9

What it means for the future? Depends on how he bounces back the rest of the year. If he keeps improving and gets back to where he was last year, he's as good as Vasquez. His numbers through 5 starts, however, are not very good in the K or BB areas. We'll have to wait and see how the 2nd half of the year goes.


Jair Jurrjens - 21 years old, RHP, Erie Seawolves. This kid has always been very young for his age. He has also thrived on excellent control thus far in his minor league career.

2007 stats: 2-3, 3.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9

What it means for the future? Jair is walking a few more batters this year which is making his WHIP suffer. He is, however, nearly impossible to hit a HR off allowing only 2 through 66 1/3 innings on the season so far. Last year he only allowed 11 through 140 innings so this isn't really a fluke. He has fallen off a little from his past performance, but he's still really young and the strikeout rate isn't bad and the HR rate is amazing. Still gotta think of him as a very good pitching prospect.


Dallas Trahern - 21 years old, RHP, Erie Seawolves. This kid is a groundball specialist from the right side. He has steadily moved through the Tigers system and now finds himself quite young for the Eastern League and still performing well. In all actuality, he has actually played better this year than in the past and is really moving up in the prospect world.

2007 stats: 10-3, 3.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9

What it means for the future? You can tell by his WHIP and K numbers that his ERA has been a little on the lucky side. However, he has pretty good control and his insane ground ball rate helps keep the HRs to a bare minimum. Considering his age and the league, he has put himself up alongside some of the best pitching prospects in the organization.


Christopher Cody - 23 years old, LHP, Lakeland Tigers. This steady lefty out of Manhattan College just got the move up to Lakeland from West Michigan. It's well deserved as he was tearing up the Midwest League. He's still a bit old for Lakeland, but if he tears it up he'll be in Erie or Toledo next season.

2007 stats (MWL) - 5-5, 1.77 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 1.48 BB/9, 0.10 HR/9

What it means for the future? Hard to say. He flat out dominated in the Midwest League with scary good numbers across the board. Then again, he is 23 and should be dominating that level of competition in a very good pitchers park. But the park has nothing to do with those K and BB numbers. If he puts up big numbers in Lakeland this year, he might be the real deal. Not like Verlander/Zumaya/Miller good, but very good (especially for a lefty).


Lucas French - 21 years old, LHP, Lakeland Tigers. He isn't as dominant as Cody, but he's 2 years younger and has spent the whole year in Lakeland already.

2007 stats - 4-5, 3.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.35 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9

What it means for the future? He's got pretty good numbers at an age appropriate league and he's a 6'4" lefthander. Sounds like a solid MLB prospect to me.


Ramon Garcia - 22 years old, LHP, West Michigan. This kid just made his 2007 debut after missing the 2nd half of 2006 and the first 2 months of 2007 with arm problems (I don't recall the details). In 2006, he dominated the Midwest League as much as Cody did this year (and he was 2 years younger) with a 1.92 ERA and 5 times as many Ks as BBs.

2007 stats: 0-1, 27.00 ERA, 3.86 WHIP, 3.86 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 3.86 HR/9

What it means for the future? It will be interesting to see if he can regain his touch from last year. He as obviously brilliant in 2006, but got rocked in his first start of 2007. I have no idea how likely it is that he can once again find his dominating stuff.


That's about it for the Tigers major pitching prospects at this point. There are other guys out there like Jonah Nickerson that still have a lot to prove before getting mentioned with these players.

As it stands right now, I'd rank the Tigers minor league pitching prospects as follows (not including Andrew Miller who is up to stay):

1) Virgil Vasquez
2) Dallas Trahern
3) Jair Jurrjens
4) Jon Connolly
5) Christopher Cody
6) Jordan Tata
7) Ramon Garcia
8) Lucas French

Andrew Miller versus Justin Verlander

Sure, they have their differences. Verlander is a RHP that was taken #3 overall from Old Dominion in the 2004 draft. Miller is a LHP that was taken #6 overall from North Carolina in the 2006 MLB draft. By know, you know Justin Verlander went 17-9 last year in Detroit and was named the American League Rookie of the Year. Andrew Miller got his cup of coffee in the big leagues in September in 2006 and went back to the minors this year.

Andrew Miller is on fire at AA Erie right now. His pitching is most probably most similar to what 22 year old Justin Verlander did in 2005 in the minors. Here is how they compare in a few categories by level (both started at Lakeland and then went to Erie).

Verlander
Lakeland - 13 starts, 86 innings, 9-2 record, 104 strikeouts, 19 walks, 70 hits, 1.03 WHIP, 1.67 ERA
Erie - 7 starts, 32.2 innings, 2-0 record, 32 strikeouts, 7 walks, 11 hits, 0.55 WHIP, 0.28 ERA

Miller
Lakeland - 7 starts, 41.1 innings, 1-4 record, 28 strikeouts, 15 walks, 43 hits, 1.40 WHIP, 3.48 ERA
Erie - 4 starts, 30.2 innings, 2-0 record, 24 strikeouts, 5 walks, 22 hits, 0.88 WHIP, 0.59 ERA


Not a bad start at Erie for Miller, huh? Looks even better if you throw in his 6 scoreless innings for the Tigers against St. Louis. But what can we expect from Andrew Miller in the future? Well, he's got a couple things going for him. For one, he's a lefty. Lefthanders with his stuff don't come around every day. He's also an extreme GB pitcher. In Lakeland he got 4.50 ground outs for every out made in the air (fly ball, line drive, pop up, etc). In Erie, he has bumped that up to 4.62 ground outs for every air out. Why do Ground Outs matter? Well, pitchers that have high ground ball rates and high strikeout rates are a rare bird. And I mean that in a good way. This post at The Baseball Analysts talks about MLB pitchers and GB% and K rate in 2006. Notice the names at the top of the list including Francisco Liriano, Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman, John Smoltz, Roger Clemens, etc. It's good company to keep.

I'm not sure exactly when Miller will be in Detroit for good. After a slow start in Lakeland this year, he has certainly taken off in Detroit and Erie only allowing 2 runs over 36 innings pitched with excellent peripherals. A few months ago I would have laughed at any notion that he would be in Detroit for good this year. Now, I'm not sure. And I say that knowing Kenny Rogers and Joel Zumaya are coming back soon. I hope the Tigs keep him in the minors this entire season and keep him starting all year and limit him to 180 innings or less. I'd love to see him make the rotation next spring alongside Bonderman and Verlander was one of the best young pitching staffs in the majors and a foundation for the Tigers for years to come.

You Better Recognize

As much as I love Curtis Granderson, you just have to give it up for Magglio Ordonez right now. He is just crushing the ball. 4-4 today with another 3 RBI leading the Tigers to a 12-0 win and series win over the Angels.

He is hands down at the front of the AL MVP race right now. Check out his stats and ranks in the American League.

Batting average - .361 (3rd)
Home runs - 12 (3rd)
Runs - 42 (1st)
Runs Batted In - 45 (1st)
Doubles - 23 (1st)
Extra Base Hits - 35 (1st)
On Base Percentage - .441 (3rd)
Slugging Percentage - .710 (1st)
OPS - 1.151 (1st)


Can you say WOW?!?!?!?! His lowest rank in any of those major stats is 3rd in the American League. This from a guy that was battling injuries the last few years and thought to be horribly overpaid by the Tigers when they signed him as a free agent. And let's not forget, he's the same guy that authored the single biggest moment in Tigers history in the last 20 years back in October.

Hi, My Name Is

Isn't it about time for Curtis Granderson to get a little recognition nationally? So far in 2007, he's off to a great start. Here are some of his ranks amongst American Leaguers:

8th in Slugging Percentage - .580
10th in OPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage) - .920
11th in Home Runs - 7
1st in Triples - 5
8th in Doubles - 12
12th in Stolen Bases - 6
2nd in Range Factor (amongst CF) behind Ichiro Suzuki



Come on, how can you not love a kid that plays the game like he does? And he's not even on the All Star ballot? Are you kidding me? He's one of only 2 players in the majors with at least 5 doubles, triples, home runs, and steals (Jimmy Rollins is the other).

Vote For Curtis

The MLB All Star Game ballot is now out and available for voting on MLB.com. There is a nice article about the Tigers' nominees on their official website. It provides a link so that you can go and stuff the ballot box for all your favorite Tigers, up to 25 times per person.

Unfortunately, there was one Tiger left out. Since the game is being played in a National League park, there is no DH to vote for. Gary Sheffield was moved to the OF for voting purposes which meant that one regular Tiger OF got bumped. Curtis Granderson, perhaps the most popular player on the team, was the one left out.

Normally, I wouldn't really care about this. But Curtis Granderson is rapidly becoming one of my favorite Tigers of all time. He's a genuinely nice person, he's all over the internet with blogs and a myspace site, and he's actually a good player. How he was left off instead of Craig Monroe is mind blowing (no offense to Craig).

I believe I am going to get around to organize a write-in campaign for Granderson next week. He might not be the best outfielder in the American League, but he is one of the better centerfielders in the AL and he definitely deserves consideration for the All Star Game.

Spring Stats

Well, the regular season is merely a week away now. Here's a perusal of what figures to be the Tigers opening day lineup and starting rotation and key relievers and how they have fared this spring. Hitters have BA/OBP/SLG listed and Pitchers have IP/ERA/K/BB listed.

Curtis Granderson - .310/.328/.483
Placido Polanco - .489/.574/.644
Carlos Guillen - .209/.300/.349
Magglio Ordonez - .260/.316/.380
Gary Sheffield - .256/.456/.538
Sean Casey - .277/.286/.383
Craig Monroe - .350/.413/.550
Pudge Rodriguez - .365/.393/.596
Brandon Inge - .288/.387/.385


Jeremy Bonderman - 18.0/4.00/15/8
Kenny Rogers - 22.0/2.05/5/5
Justin Verlander - 13.0/8.31/7/5
Nate Robertson - 17.1/3.12/16/9
Mike Maroth - 14.0/3.86/4/4
Joel Zumaya - 9.0/0.00/10/2
Fernando Rodney - 8.1/4.32/8/1
Todd Jones - 8.1/2.16/6/1


So who has been playing out of their mind this spring? Well, Placido Polanco doing his best Babe Ruth impersonation is probably the biggest offender. Craig Monroe and Pudge Rodriguez are also killing the ball. On the mound, Todd Jones is probably the only guy really greatly exceeding what he can be expected to produce although even I don't expect Zumaya to carry a 0.00 ERA this year.

Who is playing well, but within the realm of what they could do? Curtis Granderson, Gary Sheffield, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth, and Fernando Rodney are all playing nicely.

Who is off to a rough start that we shouldn't worry about? Carlos Guillen will not hit this poorly all year, guaranteed! And while Verlander may take a step back from 2006, his ERA will not be north of 8 this year.

What does all this mean? Not a damn thing, but it's 80 degrees in North Carolina today and I can't wait for Opening Day to finally get here as the Tigers open defense of their American League pennant!

CG28

Curtis Granderson, he of View From the Outfield on MLBlogs, is already one of the coolest people in Major League Baseball. The question for me, is, what kind of a season will he put together in 2007? The kid from Chicago tore up Detroit's minor league system to the tune of a career .300 batting average, .383 on base percentage, and .495 slugging percentage. And he did this at age appropriate levels so he wasn't padding his stats as a 23 year old in low A ball.

Those stats suggest he will be a productive player in the majors. In 2006, however, Curtis was up and down and finished his first full season with a .260/.335/.439 hitting line that had to be a little disappointing. Let's dig further...

In 2005, Curtis was a part time player in July and August before playing the entire month of September. Since he became a full timer in September of 2005, here are his month by month stats...

Sept 2005 - .287/.337/.500
April 2006 - .269/.376/.473
May 2006 - .287/.365/.475
June 2006 - .303/.384/.495
July 2006 - .273/.332/.352
Aug 2006 - .156/.224/.256
Sept 2006 - .273/.314/.555


Notice something here? The kid has been great except for July and especially August last summer. Did he hit a rookie wall in his first full MLB season? Did pitchers start to figure him out? Well, he did bounce back with a nice September that included 15 extra base hits (5 doubles, 4 triples, and 6 home runs).

This spring, he has been working on cutting down on the strikeouts. He has always K'd a lot, but last year he whiffed 174 times in 159 games. That's a lot. This spring he has cut back to only 6 strike outs in 16 games (53 at bats) which probably works out to around 70 or 80 in a full season for a leadoff hitter. On the other hand, he has only walked twice which isn't very good for a guy with a good eye.

I guess what I'm hoping is that when you combine his minor league performance with the fact that 5 of his 7 months as a pro have been very good, I am quite hopeful that Curtis will have a big year in 2007. Something along the lines of a .285 BA, .360 OBP, and .475 SLG is not out of the question.

Nasty

American League hitters are already shaking at the prospect of facing Joel Zumaya in 2007.

2007 Detroit Tigers Preview - Lineup

Last year, the Tigers ranked 5th in the American League in runs scored which isn't bad. It wasn't your average offense, however, as they struck out a lot, walked very little, and mashed a bunch of home runs. The Tigers' .329 team OBP ranked 12th in the American League and just barely ahead of the 13th place Mariners, but their 203 home runs only trailed the White Sox (236) and Yankees (210).

What to expect this year? Well, they still don't have a true leadoff hitter. They still have guys with major holes in their plate approach. But they also added a big time bat in Gary Sheffield. Even though he's 38 years old he is instantly one of the two best hitters on the team alongside Carlos Guillen.

Before the analysis, just one brief pause. If strikeouts by a hitter or batting average are terribly important to you, just stop reading. There is plenty of evidence that they mean next to nothing which I am not going to bother rehashing here right now.

Curtis Granderson

Never Nervous Curtis had his first full season of big league action last year posting a .260/.335/.413 line and playing solid D in centerfield. That's decent production, but nowhere near what he is capable of. His entire minor league career, he had an OBP between .360 and .410 and a slugging percentage from .460 to .510. Look at his age 24 season in Toledo for evidence of what we can hopefully expect as he continues to develop. He hit .290 that year with a .359 OBP and a .515 SLG cranking out 15 home runs and 22 SBs in only 111 games. Grandy will never be a .300 hitter, but he draws plenty of walks and hits for plenty of power to be a borderline all star CF for years. Critics point to his high K totals, but they've never held him down in the past. It'd be nice if he made just a tad more contact, but this kid is a legit talent and will turn 26 in spring training. He will likely once again bat leadoff because of his speed even though he is more of a #3 or #5 hitter .

Placido Polanco

Oh Placido. You won the ALCS MVP and gave yourself a reputation as a clutch hitter. But man, oh man, did you stink at the plate last year. It was brutal. As good as you were in 2005? You were equally bad in 2006. Polanco's batting line in 2005 was .331/.383/.447 and in 2006 it was .295/.329/.347. Last year he exemplified to a T why batting average is not a good stat to look at. He hit .295, drew barely any walks and almost never got an extra base hit. Not a pretty site to behold. The good news, however, is that his 2006 season was sort of out of left field. Placido had been an above average hitter for 4 consecutive seasons before nosediving last year so there is ample reason to believe he can regain his stroke and become a productive player once again. I mean it's not often somebody drops 50 points of OBP and 100 points of SLG in one season.

Carlos Guillen

Just another ho hum monster year from one of the most underrated stars in the game. Did you know that Carlos' batting average has increased every single year since his rookie season? That's seven straight years. At this rate, he'll have a batting title one of these years. In 2006, Guillen put together a phenomenal .320/.400/.519 line at the plate as he carried the team on offense. He's now been healthy 2 of his 3 years in Detroit (04, 06) and both times he was a terror at the plate and arguably the best hitting shortstop in the game. He doesn't put up the show stopping HR numbers, but he is as solid as they get at the plate this side of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols and he managed a 10th place finish in the MVP voting. He's not what he once was defensively, but he just turned 31 a few months ago so his hitting is not likely to fall off any time soon. It's not unreasonable to expect a .320/.400/.500 hitting line again from Carlos the Great and he could even exceed that if he stays healthy.

Magglio Ordonez

Maggs put up a .298/.350/.477 hitting line batting cleanup for Detroit last year and in general gave them the feared power hitter in the middle of the lineup they were expecting. He doesn't have the power he once had, but as evidenced by his game 4 ALCS walkoff shot he can still get the job done. I'd expect very similar production from him again this year as a good but not great middle of the order run producer.

Gary Sheffield

The big offseason acquisition is the type of hitter the Tigers need. On a team filled with free swingers, this is a guy who considers anything under .400 to be a bad year for his OBP. Injured most of last year, in 2005 he hit .291/.379/.512 which was a down year at the plate. If he can even duplicate those numbers he is instantly the 2nd best hitter on the Tigers in 2007 and if he can have a big year, he is capable of putting up MVP caliber numbers at the plate.

Craig Monroe

Mr. Clutch last year needs to learn to draw a few more walks. His .255/.301/.482 batting line says it all. Lots of power, not much else. In a somewhat disturbing trend it is the 2nd straight year his OBP has declined from a decent .337 in 2004. Craig is a very good defensive left fielder and he will turn 30 next month. If he can up the BA/OBP just a little he could become a good player. As it stands, he's merely average in leftfield.

Ivan Rodriguez

35 year old Pudge is still a force behind the plate as perhaps the best defensive catcher in the league. Unfortunately, he isn't much with the bat anymore. In 2006, he put up a .300/.332/.437 hitting line. For a defensive catcher, that is very good, but it isn't nearly up to what he could do in his prime. The good news is that he worked on his plate discipline last year and managed 26 walks after only 11 in 2005. If he can get that up near 40 or 50 he could be a decent hitter in 2007. Can't expect a lot of offense, though, because he is clearly past his prime.

Brandon Inge

Perhaps the most exciting defensive infielder in baseball, Brandon has been swinging for the fences more and more as his career goes on. He turns 30 this May so he is no longer a youngster, but his batting is still evolving. In 2006, he hit .253/.313/.463 with a career high 27 home runs and 83 RBI. It'd be nice to see him up the OBP and he does have a good eye, because he makes way too many outs right now. I'm not quite sure what to expect from him in 2007. He's probably the best athlete on the team and has phenomenal hand eye coordination. I'd say that aside from Granderson, he has the biggest potential for improvement on the team based mostly on his quick hands.

Sean Casey

And now we come to the Debbie Downer segment of the lineup. Sean Casey sucked in Detroit last year. He was brought in to replace the struggling Chris Shelton at first base and proceeded to hit even worse than Shelton. He was brutal in Detroit last year. .245 batting average? .285 on base percentage? .364 slugging percentage? He actually hit worse than Polanco did last year at the biggest offensive position on the field. In Detroit, he was arguably one of the 10 worst position players in the entire American League. The good news is that this horrible performance was a huge drop from what he had been doing in Pittsburgh in 2006, which although not good was at least adequate. With the Bucs, he hit .296/.377/.408 in 2006. His total lack of power for a firstbaseman is disturbing, but he at least usually gets on base quite a bit. In Detroit, however, he stopped getting on base. Sean turns 33 this summer so it's unlikely he will all of a sudden start improving in any major way, but hopefully as he adjusts to the league he can get back to normal for him and come close to a .400 OBP to make up for his lack of power.

Chris Shelton

Speaking of Sean Casey, can we get Shelton some damn playing time. Yes, I realize he lost his swing after the quick start last year when he started reaching for the fences too much. But the kid can flat out hit. Check out his career MLB numbers in 249 games: .281/.348/.477. And he doesn't turn 27 until June. This kid can play and they need to get him in the batters box. He's a better hitter than Sean Casey right now and is not too shabby in the field. I don't care how bad he tailed off last year, he has a record of hitting everywhere he has been and they need all the offense they can get to tangle with the powers in the AL.

Marcus Thames

Speaking of hitting, how about Thames? Detroit's best hitting outfielder last year might be the odd man out for ABs this year. In 2006, he hit .256/.333/.549 while knocking 26 HRs in a little over half a season worth of at bats. If he isn't going to play much, they need to trade him for something because he is too valuable to be wasting away on the bench. It's not every team in the league that has somebody with 40-50 HR power sitting on the bench. Heck, if you combine the last 3 seasons Thames has 41 HRs in 610 at bats for the Tigers. Imagine what he'd do if he ever got regular PT.

Omar Infante

This utility man just turned 25 this offseason and had a decent year at the plate last year. He hit .277/.325/.415 in 224 at bats which isn't bad. I'd really like to see him get used as the 3rd middle infielder ahead of guys like Neifi Perez and Ramon Santiago because his offensive ability is light years ahead of them and his D isn't bad either.


As for Neifi Perez, I only hope there is some way he doesn't make the roster. He's a nice guy, but arguably one of the 5 worst hitters in the last decade of major league baseball. Look at what he did for Detroit last year: .200 batting average, .235 on base percentage, .215 slugging percentage. Neifi was a lightweight hitter in Coors Field and since he left he has been just horrid. It was at least a good sign to see Jim Leyland admit that in hindsight it was a mistake to bring him in last year. He has to go down as the worst move of the Dombrowski era.

2007 Detroit Tigers Preview - Pitching

No, I'm still not down from the high of the 2006 American League pennant winning Detroit Tigers season. It was simply a thing of beauty to behold and one of the most unexpected great seasons I have ever seen. That said, it's now time to look ahead to 2007. I'll start with the pitching. It was the strength of the 2006 team and could be even better in 2007 (though that will take some luck).

First up, the rocks of the starting rotation. Barring injury, these guys are the starters.

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler just turned 42, but is coming off one of the best seasons of his career going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA. What can we expect in 2007 from the soft tossing lefty? Well, for starters, he isn't likely to duplicate those numbers again. Wins? Maybe. But ERA will likely be north of 4.00 and closer to 4.50. His career ERA is 4.19, though he has been under 4.00 in 3 of the last 5 years. But at some point age will catch up with him. I think 180 innings and a 4.40 ERA are reasonable expectations. He won't anchor the rotation, but he won't hurt them either.

Jeremy Bonderman - This kid is the face of one of Dombrowski's first big moves with the Tigers when he jetisoned Jeff Weaver for a trio of players including Bonderman. He just turned 24 at the conclusion of the season and has 4 full seasons under his belt. What's not to love about this kid? Check out his season by season progressions:

2003 - 6-19, 162 IP, 5.56 ERA, 108 Ks, 58 BBs, 1.549 WHIP
2004 - 11-13, 184 IP, 4.89 ERA, 168 Ks, 73 BBs, 1.310 WHIP
2005 - 14-13, 189 IP, 4.57 ERA, 145 Ks, 57 BBs, 1.354 WHIP
2006 - 14-8, 214 IP, 4.08 ERA, 202 Ks, 64 BBs, 1.299 WHIP

It doesn't take a math major to see the consistent and steady improvement in nearly every category from Wins and Losses to K/BB ratio to WHIP to ERA, etc. Gotta think we'll see more of the same in 2007 as Bonderman looks to break out into the stardom he seems destined for. 18 wins, 200+ Ks, and an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range seem well within his reach as he becomes one of the top starters in the American League behind Johan Santana.

Justin Verlander

The reigning AL rookie of the year is coming off a season in which he went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA for the AL champs. Pretty heady stuff for a 23 year old. His peripheral numbers weren't nearly as good as Bonderman's however, and he likely had quite a bit of luck involved in that ERA and W/L record. In 186 IP, he only managed 124 strikeouts vs 60 walks and gave up a WHIP of 1.328. I'd expect he'll fall off a little this year, though the potential for greatness is still there. His low strikeout totals were somewhat perplexing given the actual quality of the pitches he throws. His fastball routinely touches 98 or 99 on the gun and he has one of the biggest knee buckling curveballs in the league. Maybe with a little more experience he will learn how to put away the big leaguers via the whiff. This year I'd expect him to come in around 200 innings with an ERA in the 4.00 to 4.25 range and hopefully >150 strikeouts. Not quite as good Bonderman, but a very good young starter.

Nate Robertson

Nasty Nate was the tough luck pitcher on the staff last year only putting together a 13-13 record despite a 3.84 ERA in 208 IP. Like Bonderman, he just keeps getting better. 2006 marked the 4th consecutive year that he lowered his ERA and WHIP, though his K and BB rates have stabilized. What can we expect this year? Well, he's a good pitcher. I think 200 IP and a sub 4.00 ERA is well within reach again, though I'm not sure how much he has left in him to improve based on his K and BB rates. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but gets the most out of what he has. For a 3rd or 4th starter in the bigs? He helps make the Tigers staff as good as any in the league.

Mike Maroth

Mike was the forgotten man in 2006 after a hot start when he was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Don't forget, however, that he has continued to battle back since he lost 21 games in 2003. Maroth was on pace for his best season ever with a 5-2 record and a 4.19 ERA before being injured. He doesn't have great stuff and considering he's coming off a major injury I don't know exactly what to expect. But for a 5th starter he is certainly a solid option to have.


Other contenders for the 5th starter spot if injury or poor performance creeps in? Gotta think of names like Jordan Tata, Zach Miner, and Wil Ledezma. Now, off to the bullpen.

Todd Jones

TJ earned his nickname of roller coaster last year with all the excitement he brought to the mound (for both teams) when he entered the game. He did somehow manage to string together a 3.94 ERA and 37 saves, however. He is getting old as he turns 39 in April, but is still likely the closer heading into spring camp. I don't expect a whole lot out of a guy that only managed 28 strikeouts in 64 innings last year, but he might just keep plugging along and holding 3 run leads by the skin of his teeth.

Joel Zumaya

Kid K was a human highlight reel last year. From his flame tattoo on his forearm to the 103 mph radar gun readings to the goatee and glare, he was sheer intimidation on the mound to opposing hitters. The sight of him mowing down the heart of the Yankees order in postseason still warms my heart. While he wasn't a closer last year, he arguably pitched much more important situations than Todd Jones often entering in the 7th or 8th inning and the game on the line. His talent is why I'm a lot less concerned about Jones as closer. If it gets that bad, Zumaya simply moves to the 9th inning. Zumaya's stats last year were off the charts. In 83 1/3 IP, he managed to rack up 97 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. His 42 walks allowed and 2 HBP were just wild enough to keep hitters on their toes. He is as dominant as any young reliever in the majors and is likely destined to be closing games for a long time in Detroit (think Mariano Rivera for the Yankees).

Fernando Rodney

Fernando was up and down last year, but still put together a 3.52 ERA in 71 2/3 innings pitched to go along with 65 strikeouts. He walked too many (34), but was lights out for most of the season. Over the last 2 years, he has a combined ERA of 3.27 which is excellent. A power arm like Zumaya (though not quite that fast), his devastating change up makes him tougher on lefties than righties which really helps this right hand heavy bullpen late in the game.

Wil Ledezma

60 IP with a 3.58 ERA isn't bad for this swingman who can both start games or work as a lefty out of the pen. Still on the younger side (just turned 26 last week), he has very good potential with a 95-97 mph fastball and a big curveball. If somebody goes down in the rotation, he could get a shot at starting again. Otherwise, he likely gets Jamie Walker's old job.

Jose Mesa

Buddha was signed as some insurance in the bullpen. Last year in Colorado, he managed a 3.86 ERA at the age of 40 which isn't bad. In 72 innings of work, though, he only had 39 Ks to go against 36 BBs and gave up an opponents OBP of .364. Not exactly great pitching, but decent enough as a 5th or 6th arm in the pen. Besides, it's at least worth noting that in 4 of the last 6 seasons he has managed to keep his ERA under 4.00. He was only 19/26 in save situations last year. He's a good veteran to bring in and apparently has an excellent work ethic. Hopefully he will not be counted on for innings in anything other than garbage time.



That's all I've got for guaranteed spots in the pitching staff which brings us to 9. Guys like Ed Campusano (rule 5 lefty reliever), Zach Miner, Jason Grilli, and Roman Colon probably have to earn a spot in spring training. All in all it is an excellent pitching staff, though they will have a tough time matching the production of a staff that lead the entire major leagues in ERA in 2006 (pretty good for an AL squad). The good news is that with the addition of Gary Sheffield, the offense should be better next year.

Nothing to See Here

Move along people, there is nothing going on this week. I think Michigan has a bye or something as I haven't heard much about any upcoming games.



(thanks to Nothing Is Illuminated for the link to the pic)

Yeah, now that the last of the cupcakes (Northwestern and Indiana) have been polished off, it's now officially OK to talk about the BCFGOAT. Yep, the Biggest College Football Game Of All Time is about to go down in Columbus, Ohio. Last week I learned that two teams from the same conference hadn't been 10-0 since 1935. That's a long time. I'm anxiously awaiting somebody to dig through the entire history of college football to find a pair of 11-0 teams from the same conference meeting in their season finale. I'd say there is a very good shot it has never happened. Expect an orgy of information relating to The Game this week from every media outlet imaginable.

In other news, it was nice to see the Tigers add a big time bat to the lineup. Gary Sheffield is old, but he draws walks and hits for power and is still one of the most feared hitters in the league. If he stays healthy, he is the Tigers #1 or #2 hitter alongside Carlos Guillen. It's also nice that they didn't give up a single piece of the MLB roster parting only with major prospect Humberto Sanchez and a couple A ball pitchers. More thoughts to follow once CFB is in hiatus.

Hoop This

We interrupt your previously scheduled Michigan football blogging to pass along a reminder. It's The Return of The Wonk! Big Ten Wonk is back in action on Wednesday. He'll have an opening day Festivus (for the rest of us) followed by Alphabetically Sensitive Preseason Walk Arounds (ASPWAs) for each team. You guessed it, they are in alphabetical order. Michigan is due to hit the bookstands on November 7th so stay tuned.

But seriously, the dude knows hoops. He has been more than doing his part to shed light on tempo-free stats and the like. If you think rebounds per game is a great stat to measure rebounding prowess by, please read up on Wonk and get your act together! Unfortunately, Michigan has sucked during his reign. I refuse to do much of a preview on Michigan basketball this year, but I'll get into those reasons in a month or so with my "not a preview" preview. Until then, please get your fill from Wonk.

I'd also be remiss to mention that I'll have some thoughts on the World Series and the Tigers offseason in a few weeks. It's just that they played like such crap it isn't worth my time right now and I'm thankfully far more interested in college football right now with Michigan's fantabulous season. But fear not, I will get to it.

Game 1

After a week of partying and celebrating the Tiger's first pennant in 22 years, it's back to business tonight as two of the most storied franchises in baseball history square off for the third time in the World Series. St. Louis will be looking for revenge from 1968 when the Tigers took an epic game 7 by beating Bob Gibson in his prime. They will also be looking for revenge from earlier this year when Detroit swept St. Louis over a 3 game series in Detroit (10-6, 7-6, and 4-1).

Check out The Detroit Tiger Weblog for the best Tiger blogging around.

Or head to Deadspin for the most popular sports blog that happens to be written by a Cardinals fan.

Tonight we will get a chance to see if the Tigers are rusty with not having played since 1 week ago. We'll also get our first crack at the AL vs NL thing since the Junior Circuit spanked the Senior Circuit all over the field in Interleague play this year. Detroit was one of those teams that dominated the NL (along with the Twins, White Sox, and Red Sox) going 15-3 against the NL Central this year. Who won the NL Central? The Cardinals. Yep, Detroit dominated the Cards division this year.

I'm not into making predictions and it is nice to see all the love the Tigers are getting from national pundits this week, but I'm not buying the hype. These are the same people that said the Yankees would steamroll Detroit so let's just see how it plays out on the field. I'm just hoping to get at least one peek this week at Albert Pujols vs Joel Zumaya.

Magg-nificent

The Shot Heard Round Detroit launched the Tigers into the World Series and set off an epic night of partying in Motown. Can it get any better than this? Well, barring any more rain outs in the NLCS we'll get a look at the World Series.





It's time to party like it's 1984!

T-I-G-E-R-S

Just 30 minutes away from the first pitch in Detroit as the Tigers have 3 games in a row at home already up 2-0 in the ALCS. Today it is the ageless wonder Kenny Rogers against the still recovering Rich Harden. Tomorrow pits Jeremy Bonderman against Danny Haren.

I have no idea what is in the water in Detroit right now, but Jim Leyland is pushing all the right buttons. Let's hope it continues.

ALCS Baby!

Pardon the relative paucity of Michigan football content this week as I'll probably be just a tad involved in the ALCS, especially since I've got tickets to Game 3 and Game 4. Don't worry, though, I will get around to a few Michigan posts this week. But come on, how can you not be pumped about this?










How can you not love that celebration? I'm not sure if the players or the fans were having more fun. I don't think Little Leaguers have had the much fun at a pizza party after a game. Everybody in that stadium knew that the Tigers weren't supposed to make the playoffs. When they did everybody knew they were supposed to roll over for the mighty Yankees. All 19 of ESPN's "experts" picked the Tigers to lose in round 1 and they didn't even need 5 games. I'm of the belief that when it comes to watching a team win a championship, the journey is the fun part. You know what, I've had more fun watching the Tigers this year than any team I have ever rooted for. 1996 Packers? 3 Stanley Cup Champion Red Wings teams? 1997 Michigan football? 1996 and 1998 Michigan hockey? None of them compares to what this team has done this year. I don't care where they ride ends, it's been a thrill.

Up next? They head to Oakland for Game 1 of the ALCS. Detroit took the season series 5-4 but the stats were heavily in favor of Detroit mostly based on 2 blowouts. Want to get ready for the game? Here you go:






Cubs fans will be hard pressed to top that if/when the Cubs ever win the World Series again. And the fun part? It was the divisional series. It meant almost nothing, but at the same time it meant everything. The Tigers haven't won anything in the standings, but they won the respect of everybody. That series validated their entire magical season and the direction the franchise is heading. The Detroit Tigers are here and they are going to make some noise.

Game on!

Tigers and Yankees, Game 3 Tonight

Yep, I'm just a little bit excited for this one. First playoff game in Detroit in 19 years. They just split the first pair in New York and now they get a chance to tee off against the weakest part of the Yankees roster, Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright. It's going to be electric in Comerica tonight. Detroit has always been a baseball town and the city has been starved for a winner. If I'm in charge of the PA system, I'm turning on "Welcome to the Jungle" and cranking up the volume when the teams take the field before the game. It's going to be very loud tonight when we get a pair of geezers on the mound as Randy Johnson squares off against Kenny Rogers. Johnson has a poor career record in the postseason and struggled for most of this year. Kenny Rogers has been even worse in the postseason, but he has pitched very well the last 6 weeks of the season. New York has the better lineup, Detroit the better bullpen.

Look for Detroit to stack the lineup with right handed bats tonight and I wish we had Shelton on the roster to get even one more instead of Sean Casey. I wish I could be there in person, but I'll be there in spirit.




UPDATE: WOO HOO! The Gambler was dominant tonight. He'll probably rate this right up there with his perfect game as the best game of his life. His curveball was just filthy and I've never seen the Yankees swing and miss at so many pitches. Jeremy Bonderman gets the ball tomorrow as the Tigers try to clinch the series.