17 Games Left: Third Is The Word

With today's loss to the Cubs, the Mets fell to 71-74 on the season.  They remain two thousand games behind the first place Phillies (that will change after tonight's Phillies-Brewers matchup has been completed) and a few hundred games behind the wild card-leading Braves (also pending tonight's game).  However, they do remain four games ahead of the fourth place Nationals and 5½ games in front of the lowly Marlins.

So the question is not whether the Mets can catch the Braves for the wild card or cut the Phillies' lead in the NL East to one thousand games (even though a three-game sweep of Philadelphia in two weeks would certainly help), it's whether or not the Mets can forget that there are 17 games left in the season and hold off the Nats and Fish to finish higher than fourth place for the first time since moving across the parking lot to Citi Field.

The 2007 and 2008 Mets famously went 5-12 and 7-10, respectively, in their final 17 games to lose their not-so-firm grip on first place and the wild card, failing to make the playoffs each year.  The 2009 Mets also went 7-10 in their final 17 games, but managed to hold off the Washington Nationals in their quest for fourth place in the NL East (mission accomplished - yes!)

Last year's team was 72-73 at the 145-game mark, as they were duking it out with the Marlins for third place.  They then proceeded to go (you guessed it) 7-10 in their final 17 games, finishing in fourth place, a game behind the Marlins, but at least ahead of the last place Nats.

So what can we expect the Mets to do this year now that they've reached the dreaded "17 to play" mark of the season?

For one thing, the Mets have what should be a comfortable lead in the NL East over the Nationals and Marlins.  But then again, being four games up on Washington doesn't guarantee anything.  The Nationals still have something to play for.  Since moving to Washington from Montreal following the 2004 season, the Nats have finished last in every year but one (2007, when they finished two games ahead of the cellar-dwelling Marlins).  With the potential for their highest finish in the NL East, the Nationals will surely be playing hard over their final 17 games.  The Marlins, on the other hand, just lost six games over the past two weeks to the Mets.  The demons of 2007 and 2008 have been exorcised and the Marlins should pose no threat to the Mets over their final 17 games (we hope).

A quick look at my once shiny, now falling apart Mets pocket schedule reveals that the Mets will be playing a four-game series with the fourth place (and hungry) Nationals next week at Citi Field.  The Mets cannot lose this series if a) they want to finish .500 or better and 2) they don't want to choke away third place to Jayson Werth and his cohorts.  They must split this series at the very least.  Taking three of four would all but eliminate the Nats from third place contention and a four-game sweep plus drilling Werth in his $126 million @$$ would be the cherry on top of the mediocre sundae.

It would behoove the Mets to do well against Washington because after that series, the Mets will be playing the wild card-leading Braves in Atlanta (they have a worse winning percentage at Turner Field than the Washington Generals have against the Harlem Globetrotters), followed by a trip to St. Louis against the somehow-still-in-it Cardinals, and topped off with a three-game set against the team with the best record in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies, who somehow are on their way to the best record in franchise history, even without the aforementioned Jayson Werth (guess their key off-season acquisition of Juan Samuel to be their third base coach really panned out for them).

Should the Mets falter against the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies, they'll need to sweep the Reds at Citi Field to close out the regular season to have any realistic hope of finishing ahead of the Nationals for third place.  The lowly Reds surely remember the Mets' first-ever four-game sweep in Cincinnati a few months ago, so they will not be an easy opponent, despite what the won-loss records say.

The Mets have gone 7-10 over their final 17 games in each of the last three seasons (and it's four out of five seasons if you go back to 2006; even that team went 7-10 over their final 17 regular season games).  Doing the same this year would produce a 78-84 record, a one-game dropoff from their 2010 final record.  It would also put them in jeopardy of being passed by the Washington Nationals for third place in the NL East.  Finishing .500 or better should be the ultimate goal for this year's Mets, but finishing in third place is the more likely (and attainable) goal.  It's time to show the rest of the National League East (meaning those teams not named Los Phillies or Los Braves) that this Mets team has had enough of late-season chokes and fourth place finishes.  Say it loud and say it proud!  Third is the word!  And nothing else will be acceptable!

I guess the Nationals found a drawer with $126 million in it

This is one of those strange moments in sport where the collective wisdom of the entire baseball community all has a single opinion of something... and when it will inevitably come true, there will be a "WE TOLD YOU SO" ringing so loud through the land that windows will vibrate.

In 2006, Jayson Werth was an injury prone outfielder who played for the Blue Jays and then the Dodgers. He missed the entire 2006 season after surgery to his wrist.

He was 27 years old. He had only once played more than 100 games in a season. (He had NEVER played 105 games in a season.)

His numbers were ordinary except for a glimpse of things to come when he homered twice in the 2004 Division Series for the Dodgers. I remember seeing one of the homers and thinking "Jayson WHO?"

And now, after 6 full seasons (and parts of 2 others) in the bigs, he is signed for seven years.
The next time he hits .300 will be the first time in his career.
The next time he drives in 100 runs will be the first time in his career.
The next time he finishes in the top 5 in On Base Percentage, Slugging, OPS and total bases will be the first time in his career.

He's had one truly terrific season... his walk year.

Any alarms going off yet?

Plus he is in his 30s and guess what? The age when sluggers get BETTER when they reach their mid 30s are over... and he'll be paid like an elite player when he is in his LATE 30s.

Jason Giambi is giggling somewhere.

I know Werth does all the things right and he is a good teammate blah blah blah.
All that has so much more value (note I didn't make the Werth-Worth pun) when you have MVPs on the team and Cy Young candidates in the rotation.

Kevin Millar was a remarkable cog in the Red Sox wheel... but they had Papi, Ramirez, Damon and a batting champ in Bill Mueller. It's easier to be the "heart and soul" when other people are supplying the firepower.

Now he will be the heart and soul of a franchise whose biggest star is Stephen Strasburg and he isn't playing in 2011.

If they had $126 million to throw around, why not get into the Cliff Lee sweepstakes?
Or Prince Fielder?
Or spread that money around and make improvements.

Or stick it in a drawer and wait to spend it when they... oh I don't know... can put a winning product on the field.

Instead the Nationals tried to make a splash. Well bellyflops make splashes too.

As for Jayson Richard Gowan Werth... I don't blame him.

He's won a ring and contributed big time for it in 2008. He has 13 post season homers and a career .987 playoff OPS. He hit 7 homers in the 2009 postseason alone.

And he was a huge part of one of the best Philadelphia sports teams ever. And if they start to go south in 2011, people will blame it on Werth's departure.

Why not cash it in?
Why not say "Hey, for the next seven seasons, I am going to make so much money that my grandkids will be able to support THEIR kids on it"?

And oh yeah, he should be receiving a thank you note from Carl Crawford.

Werth is off the market but setting the bar high and who is courting Crawford? The Angels, the Yankees and the Red Sox... no big spenders.

Jayson's Werth

Remember how at the Trade Deadline it was a foregone conclusion that Jayson Werth was going to be dealt for bullpen help. He is going to be a free agent and hey! Domonic Brown would take over in right field. He got uniform #9... just like Roy Hobbs.

I wonder if anyone was thinking that today when Werth clubbed that 2 run walk off 9th inning shot in Philly.

Forget bullpen help... Werth closed the game out himself.

That coupled with Brad Lidge finding himself and this could have been the best trade the Phillies DIDN'T make.

I think it is time to forgive them for the Cliff Lee deal.
Brown could wind up with a ring at the end of the year anyway.

Big series against Atlanta this week. I am guessing Werth will come up big.

Welcome to Colorado, Manny Delcarmen

It's a cruel place, Coors Field.
Old friend Manny Delcarmen, whom I paid tribute to the other day, let up a game tying homer to Jayson Werth in his first appearance as a Colorado Rockie.

The thin air stinks sometimes.

Bear down Manny... you still have a friend in Sully.