Zack Wheeler: Is He Nolan Ryan Or Oliver Perez?

The trade of Carlos Beltran to the Giants became official earlier today, as the longtime Mets' outfielder agreed to join the NL West leaders. In return, the Mets received top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, who was the sixth overall pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft.

Wheeler was ranked No. 55 among all prospects prior to the 2011 season, but moved up to No. 35 in the recently released mid-season rankings. Clearly, Wheeler is expected to someday produce at the major league level or else Sandy Alderson wouldn't have asked for him when he traded away his All-Star rightfielder.

Right now, Wheeler has a slight problem controlling his pitches. Okay, slight might be an understatement when you consider his career minor league numbers.

Since playing in his first professional game in 2010, Wheeler has pitched in 37 games (29 starts). In 146.2 innings, he's walked 85 batters, averaging 5.2 walks per nine innings. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Wheeler has also thrown 19 wild pitches and hit 11 batters.

Let's put these numbers in perspective. There are six pitchers in the National League who have already surpassed 146.2 innings this season. Therefore, it's fair to say that Wheeler has pitched the equivalent of what some National League pitchers have pitched this year.

Currently, J.A. Happ is leading the National League in walks, handing out 60 free passes this season. That's 25 fewer than Wheeler.

Those 19 wild pitches thrown by Wheeler? That's almost twice as many as the National League leader, Hiroki Kuroda, who's uncorked 11 wild ones. No one else in the NL has more than nine.

Wheeler's 11 hit batsmen would also be pacing the National League, as that total surpasses NL leader Randy Wolf by one.

Of course, Wheeler still has plenty of time to work on his control, as he is only 21 years old and will be pitching for the St. Lucie Mets. Still, one can't help but wonder if Wheeler is going to someday challenge for the Triple Crown of Pitching (leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, as Dwight Gooden did for the Mets in 1985) or the Triple Crown of Wildness (leading the league in walks, wild pitches and hit batsmen).

Nolan Ryan was also wild in the minors, walking 200 batters in his first 291 minor league innings. Then again, so was Oliver Perez, (you thought you'd never see his name in a Studious Metsimus post again, didn't you?) who issued 150 walks in his first 322 professional innings.

Of course, Nolan Ryan learned how to harness his talent and translated it into a Hall of Fame career. Oliver Perez has used his talent to teach his minor league teammates which fast food restaurants are the best in and around Harrisburg, PA, which is where he has toiled as a member of the Washington Nationals Triple-A squad.

Hopefully, the Mets won't promote Wheeler through their minor league system until he has shown improvement with his control. Yes, he's managed to strike out his share of batters (168 Ks in 146.2 innings), but so did Ollie (554 Ks in 517.1 career minor league innings).

It is imperative that the Mets take their time with Zach Wheeler. In a few years, Wheeler might be part of a young pitching staff that includes fellow prospect Matt Harvey, along with 10-game winner Jonathon Niese and nine-game winner Dillon Gee. That staff could rival the 1986 staff, or it could be the second coming of Generation K.

Zack Wheeler is expected to be a big part of the Mets' future. For that to happen, he'll have to put his wild past behind him and focus on improving his control in the present. Nolan Ryan was able to do it. Oliver Perez was not. It's up to Zack Wheeler to figure out if he wants to take a limo to Cooperstown or a bus to Harrisburg.

Seaver, Koosman, Gooden...What About Gee?

Last night, the Mets defeated the Pirates, 8-1. Dillon Gee pitched a strong eight innings, allowing one run on eight hits, walking none and striking out five. The rookie right-hander improved to 7-0 with the victory and the Mets improved to 9-0 in his nine starts. It has been well-documented that Gee is the first Mets pitcher to begin his first full season in the majors by winning his first six decisions (now seven), but should this strong start earn him a trip to Arizona for the All-Star Game?

The Mets have only sent three starting pitchers to the Midsummer Classic in their history. Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman were bestowed that honor in 1967 and 1968, respectively, while Dwight Gooden became the last Met rookie to pitch in an All-Star Game when he pitched two scoreless innings in 1984.

As of today, Gee is leading the National League in winning percentage (1.000), is tied for sixth in wins (7), ninth in WHIP (1.097), and ranks just outside the top ten with a 3.05 ERA (Arizona's Ian Kennedy is 10th with a 3.01 ERA). Gee is also holding opposing batters to a .215 batting average, .293 on-base percentage and .309 slugging percentage.

Gee's numbers appear to make him a lock to make the final cut. However, last season Mike Pelfrey was 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA through games of June 25 and did not make the All-Star team, so Gee's inclusion on the this year's team is not guaranteed.

Whether he represents the National League in Arizona or not, Dillon Gee has pitched like an All-Star for the Mets, surpassing all expectations for a player who began the season at AAA-Buffalo. He's been their most consistent and valuable pitcher over the first two months of the season, keeping the Mets around the .500 mark longer than most "experts" predicted. As mentioned before, the Mets are 9-0 in Gee's starts. When another starter takes the mound, the Mets are 22-32.

Tom Seaver. Jerry Koosman. Dwight Gooden. They are the three winningest pitchers in franchise history. They're also the only three rookie pitchers to appear for the Mets in an All-Star Game. Dillon Gee has a chance to become the fourth member of this exclusive club. That would be quite an accomplishment for a pitcher who expected to be in Buffalo this summer, but instead might be going to Arizona.

8 Since 7 Played 1

Eight years ago today, the Mets were playing the Texas Rangers in an interleague game. The Mets fell short in that game, losing by the final score of 9-7. It was just another game on the schedule for the Mets, who were on their way to a 66-95 season under first-year manager Art Howe. But one significant thing did happen on June 10, 2003, for that was the day Jose Reyes made his debut for the New York Mets.

On the day before his 20^th birthday, Reyes became the first teenager since Dwight Gooden in 1984 to take the field for the Mets. The charismatic shortstop was one of the top prospects in the Mets’ minor league system and was called up to replace Rey Sanchez, who was placed on the disabled list with a thumb injury. Although Reyes started his career with a bang (he hit a grand slam for his first major league homer five days after his debut), injuries sidelined him over his first two seasons in the big leagues. His second season with the Mets (2004) saw Reyes move to second base to accommodate Kaz Matsui, who never lived up to expectations after signing a three-year deal to become the team’s new shortstop.

Finally, in 2005, Jose Reyes stayed healthy for the first time. He moved back to shortstop, displacing the oft-booed Matsui, who moved over to second base. Reyes played in all but one game that season, hitting .273, while banging out 190 hits. He also led the National League with 60 stolen bases, becoming only the second Met to steal as many as 60 bases in a season (Roger Cedeño stole 66 bases in 1999). Reyes’ run of excellence and good health continued over the next three years, when he stole an average of 66 bases per season, including a franchise-record 78 in 2007. He also added power to his game, racking up extra-base hit after extra-base hit. From 2006-2008, Reyes hit 103 doubles, 48 triples and 47 home runs.

Then the injury bug victimized Reyes again, as he was limited to 36 games in 2009. Reyes did come back to play in 133 games in 2010, but without a strong supporting cast around him, his play suffered. He finished the season with 83 runs scored, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases, all of which were career-lows for a season in which he played at least 100 games.

Now comes 2011, a year in which Reyes once again has had to play without a strong supporting cast. Last year, he couldn't rise to the occasion (although in his defense, an assortment of minor injuries did slow him down a bit). This year, he's surpassed all expectations and is carrying the team with him. Through the Mets' first 62 games, Reyes has already surpassed last season's total for triples. His 11 three-baggers lead the majors, and he also ranks at or near the top of the league leaderboard in batting average, hits, multi-hit games, runs scored, doubles and stolen bases.

Jose Reyes has been special for many years and is now just entering his prime. However, just as he's in the midst of his best season in the majors, he may also be nearing the end of his Mets career, as free agency is looming for Reyes after this season. Perhaps Sandy Alderson will find a few extra million dollars in Fred Wilpon's wallet at the end of the season to give to Reyes. Whether or not he accepts the offer is up to him.

However, regardless of what happens to Reyes in the next few months, let us not forget the dynamic player he has been for the Mets. As Reyes goes, so goes the team. If the Mets are involved in a late-inning rally, Reyes is usually involved. If the team needs a spark of life, Reyes will provide the charge.

Since the days of Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden, no homegrown player has provided as much excitement to the Mets' fanbase as Jose Reyes. We've watched him grow from an energetic teenager to a sometimes immature superstar to the leader he has become this year.

The team may have changed dramatically since Jose Reyes played his first game eight years ago today, and Reyes has changed quite a bit as well, but one thing hasn't changed. Jose Reyes plays the game to win. He plays the game to have fun. He plays the game, period. We should be thankful that we've been able to watch Reyes play for the past eight years. Talent like that doesn't come along very often.

First Quarter Recap: Things We Observed By Watching

Okay, so technically the first quarter of the season ended in the middle of the fifth inning on Monday, when the Mets had played 40½ games. But blogging isn't an exact science and my watch wasn't working, so let's just say the first quarter of the season just ended today. After their second consecutive shutout victory over the Washington Nationals, the Mets' record stands at 21-22. For a team that started the season by losing 13 of their first 18 games, they've made quite a turnaround.

So as we look back on those first 43 games and look ahead to the next 118 (because I'm still convinced that the Mets will have a game rained out that doesn't get made up), let's see what we observed during the first quarter and what we can look forward to over the next three-quarters of the season.

There are two things we noticed about Jason Bay. Neither one of them is very positive. Let's ignore that he banged out three hits today. Instead, let's focus on home runs and runs batted in, or the lack of them.

We still think Jason Bay is a nice guy who tries his best. Too bad his best produces strikeouts and pop-ups.

These are the career batting statistics of two former Mets, followed by Jason Bay's numbers as a Met (through games of May 18, 2011):

• Player A: 17 doubles, 5 triples, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 70 runs scored.
• Player B: 15 doubles, 5 triples, 7 HR, 65 RBI, 59 runs scored.
• Jason Bay: 23 doubles, 6 triples, 8 HR, 54 RBI, 60 runs scored.

As you can see, Player A and Player B both have career numbers comparable to Jason Bay. Who are these players? Player A is Tom Seaver and Player B is Dwight Gooden. At least Bay can say that he has numbers that compare to two of the best players ever to put on a Mets uniform. Of course, those weren't exactly the Mets players fans had in mind when they envisioned the batting marks Jason Bay would approach.

So do you know which hitter Jason Bay resembles the most? How about Chico Walker? The man who made the final out AGAINST the Mets in the game that clinched the 1986 NL East division title and the final out FOR the Mets the last time they were no-hit, put up numbers stunningly similar to the Mets' current $66 million man:

• Chico Walker: .268 AVG/.322 OBP/.382 SLG, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 21 SB in 440 at-bats.
• Jason Bay: .250 AVG/.340 OBP/.388 SLG, 8 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB in 428 at-bats.

Perhaps with a little surge in the second quarter of the season, Bay might approach Richie Hebner's career stats for the Mets (.268, 25 doubles, 10 HR, 79 RBI in 473 at-bats).

Richie Hebner hated New York and Mets fans. I wonder if he can claim John Rocker as a dependent.

What was the other thing we noticed about Jason Bay this season? In 23 games, the Mets' leftfielder has driven in seven runs. In the last four games alone, second baseman/third baseman Justin Turner has knocked in nine.

Here are a few other things we observed over the first quarter of the season that have nothing to do with Jason Bay.

One of the newest members of the Buffalo Bisons, Chin-Lung Hu didn't do very well in his time with the Mets. In fact, he finished the first quarter of the season with more body parts in his name (two - Chin and Lung) than base hits collected (Hu notched one safety in 20 at-bats).

Jose Reyes is back to leading the National League in stolen bases, a feat he accomplished three times from 2005 to 2007. His 16 stolen bases are two more than Astros' speedster Michael Bourn. What's amazing about Reyes' stolen base total is that he also has 20 extra-base hits on the year. For those who aren't aware, it's a little difficult for Jose to steal second base when he's already standing on it or past it because he keeps churning out extra-base hit after extra-base hit. Can you say contract year, kids?

What about Reyes' partner in grime, David Wright? The recently-DL'ed third baseman has struck out 43 times in 146 at-bats this season (an average of one strikeout every 3.4 at-bats). The Mets' starting rotation (Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee) has struck out 25 times in 65 at-bats. But Chris Capuano has struck out nine times in 12 at-bats. Therefore, the other four starters have gone down on strikes only 16 times in 53 at-bats, or once every 3.3 at-bats. Perhaps his time on the DL will remind David Wright that he should stop running away from good pitches and start making contact with them.

You can run, but you can't hide (from strike three).

Over the past two seasons, the Mets finished a combined 61-101 away from Citi Field (compared to an 88-74 record at home). This year, the opposite is true, as the Mets are 11-10 on the road and 10-12 at home. Their improvement on the road will come in handy during the second quarter of the season, as the Mets will play 33 of 49 games in their road grays (and blacks) from June 7 through July 31.

Upcoming Milestones Within Reach

David Wright is tied with Darryl Strawberry for first place on the all-time runs scored list (662). But with Wright on the disabled list, Jose Reyes should become the club's all-time leader in runs scored sometime this weekend. Reyes is currently third with 660.

Similarly, Wright and Reyes are both close to passing Cleon Jones for second place on the franchise's all-time hits list. Jones is currently in second place with 1,188 hits. Wright has 1,182 safeties and Reyes has 1,178.

Carlos Beltran is 12 home runs away from cracking the top five in home runs. Dave Kingman is currently fifth with 154 home runs as a Met, while Beltran has 142. With 22 RBIs, Beltran will surpass Cleon Jones (521, 7th all-time) and Edgardo Alfonzo (538, 6th all-time) in runs batted in. Of course, with each home run and RBI, Beltran becomes more attractive to teams looking to make a trade for the rightfielder.

Francisco Rodriguez picked up his 74th save as a Met today, good for seventh on the team's all-time list. However, with 13 more saves he will pass Roger McDowell (84) and Tug McGraw (86) to enter the top five. Of course, if he finishes 38 more games this season, he will get plenty of opportunities to go even higher on the all-time saves list, as he will reach the 55-game plateau needed for his 2012 contract to vest.

For Mike Pelfrey, The Hits Just Keep On Comin'

Mike Pelfrey is entering his sixth season with the Mets, compiling a 43-41 record over his first five seasons in New York (43-42 after his Opening Day loss to the Florida Marlins). Although Pelfrey is just 27 years old, there have been only 17 pitchers in franchise history who have won more games than Big Pelf.

More than likely, Pelfrey will continue to move up the all-time wins leaderboard as his career progresses, but how much longer will he pitch for the Mets, especially if he continues to give up base hits at an alarming rate?

Consider the facts. In his first two starts of the 2011 season, Pelfrey has given up 12 hits in 6 1/3 innings, a rate of nearly two hits per inning. Let's compare that to the 17 pitchers who rank ahead of Pelfrey on the all-time club leaderboard for wins.

1. Tom Seaver (12 years, 198 wins): no seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
2. Dwight Gooden (11 years, 157 wins): one season with more hits than innings pitched.
3. Jerry Koosman (12 years, 140 wins): no seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
4. Ron Darling (9 years, 99 wins): one season with more hits than innings pitched.
5. Sid Fernandez (10 years, 98 wins): no seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
6. Al Leiter (7 years, 95 wins): no seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
7. Jon Matlack (7 years, 82 wins): one season with more hits than innings pitched.
8. David Cone (7 years, 81 wins): one season with more hits than innings pitched.
9. Bobby Jones (8 years, 74 wins): five seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
10. Steve Trachsel (6 years, 66 wins): two seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
11. Tom Glavine (5 years, 61 wins): four seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
12. Rick Reed (5 years, 59 wins): two seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
13. Craig Swan (12 years, 59 wins): four seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
14. Bob Ojeda (5 years, 51 wins): one season with more hits than innings pitched.
15. John Franco (14 years, 48 wins): five seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
16. Tug McGraw (9 years, 47 wins): two seasons with more hits than innings pitched.
17. Jesse Orosco (8 years, 47 wins): one season with more hits than innings pitched.

Dwight Gooden's sole season allowing more hits than innings pitched was 1994. That was his final season in a Mets uniform. Ron Darling also had one such season in his career, which came in his final full season as a Met (1990). In 1977, Jon Matlack suffered his first season with more hits than innings pitched. He never did it again as a Met because that was his final year in New York. The only year in which David Cone gave up better than a hit per inning was (you guessed it) his final season (2003), when he allowed 20 hits in 18 innings.

Bob Ojeda and Jesse Orosco also finished their Mets careers with only one season giving up more hits than innings pitched. In both cases, that season came in their final year with the Mets.

Of the seven pitchers who allowed more hits than innings pitched in multiple seasons (Jones, Trachsel, Glavine, Reed, Swan, Franco, McGraw), all but one of them accomplished the feat in his final full season in New York. The lone exception was John Franco, who barely missed, allowing exactly one hit per inning in 2004 (46 hits in 46 innings pitched).

So that brings us back to Mike Pelfrey. How many times do you think he's allowed more hits than innings pitched over a full season? Once? Twice? Take a look at his career numbers below:

• 2006: 21.1 innings pitched, 25 hits allowed.
• 2007: 72.2 innings pitched, 85 hits allowed.
• 2008: 200.2 innings pitched, 209 hits allowed.
• 2009: 184.1 innings pitched, 213 hits allowed.
• 2010: 204.0 innings pitched, 213 hits allowed.
• 2011: 6.1 innings pitched, 12 hits allowed.

Mike Pelfrey has allowed more hits than innings pitched in EVERY SEASON that he's pitched in the major leagues! Judging by his start this season, he might be on his way to his sixth consecutive season allowing more hits than innings pitched. Of the 17 pitchers who rank ahead of Pelfrey in career victories as a Met, none accomplished the feat more than five times.

Because of Johan Santana's injury, Pelfrey is now the de facto No. 1 pitcher in the rotation. But looking over his career numbers, the only thing Pelfrey is No. 1 in is allowing base hits. Considering the fates of other Mets pitchers who gave up more hits than innings pitched, especially late in their careers, Mike Pelfrey should be careful when he turns around. Another team's uniform might be gaining on him.