New Sully Baseball Video - "The John Lackey Horror Show."

In the latest Sully Baseball video, I reacted to the news that the Padres were supposedly interested in picking up John Lackey.

They didn't make a deal before Lackey had season ended surgery.

Awful news. But I don't get mad. I make videos.

As always, all the Sully Baseball videos can be found on my ShortForm TV channel.

Curt Young... thanks for a great season in Boston

Seriously... bang up job Curt Young as a pitching coach.
The team under your watch saw the staff totally implode in September with a starter E.R.A. of 7.

SEVEN!
I didn't think that was possible.
Evidently John Farrell ran a tight ship when he was pitching coach and Curt Young was more relaxed.

As in having the guys sh*t faced, eating chicken and getting drunk relaxed.
Maybe a tight ship is in order.

About a month ago, I said Curt Young should get his resume in order.
Well someone WANTS him. The Oakland A's, where he pitched in a few World Series and got a ring in the process.

Good for him. Nothing against the guy, but it wasn't going to work in Boston.

Oh let the great purging of the 2011 stench continue!

Ortiz to Yankees?.... oh why not?

It just keeps getting worse for a Red Sox fan.
Each day I wake up there is another factor to throw on to the "Winning 2 World Series should buffer the pain of this" pile.

You have the great collapse.
You have that agonizing last day.
You have the dismissal of Francona.
You have Theo jumping ship.
You have the disgusting character assassination of Francona.
You have the realization that the players remaining were gutless down the stretch.
You have to fear that the corporate stooges are going to turn the Red Sox into the Mets... expensive, old and non contending.

And today?
Ortiz says he might jump ship to the Yankees.

It's not going to happen. Not because of some team loyalty but because it makes sense for the Yankees to make Alex Rodriguez their full time DH.

But can anyone be stunned anymore?
Can anything else even rile us Red Sox fans up?

Right now, I am in full Lt. Dan in Forrest Gump mode, screaming at the rain and wind. "You Call This A Storm!"

I can take anything.

I will write a lot more about Tito and Theo...

I will write a LOT on this subject. But you will excuse me that I am actually interested in the teams that MADE the playoffs, not the former pennant contenders imploding from within.

But I'll say 2 things right now:

1) The character assassination of Terry Francona is despicable. To try and portray him as a pill popping bad husband is deplorable. To bring his son fighting over seas is disgusting. I will root for whatever team will hire him. (I think he should go to Washington.)

2) Epstein has had a rough few years but before everyone throws him under the bus and says how rotten he is, can he get some credit for the moves that put the Red Sox over the top in ways we NEVER imagined?

More later.

A payroll observation about Milwaukee vs Arizona

The Brewers and Diamondbacks played a thrilling 5 game Division Series.

The Milwaukee Payroll was $86 million.
The Arizona Payroll was $53.8 million.

The Brewers payroll was lower than what the Yankees paid for A-Rod, Sabathia, Teixeira and A. J. Burnett in 2011.

The Diamondbacks payroll was lower than what the Red Sox paid for Lackey, Crawford, Drew and Dice K for 2011.

Keep that in mind when discussing payroll in baseball.

A payroll thought about the Red Sox and Diamondbacks

Here's something to think about when people bring up payroll and how money brings in pennants.

The Diamondbacks won 94 games, overtook the World Champion Giants and nearly got into the NLCS.

The Red Sox collapsed under the weight of their overblown expectations and lousy pitching staff.

The Diamondbacks payroll was $53.6 million.
The Red Sox payroll was $161 million.

Let me put that a different way:
The Diamondbacks payroll was lower than what the Red Sox paid John Lackey, Carl Crawford, J. D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka for their 2011 seasons.

It might be time for the Red Sox to get younger.

Don't gloat today, Red Sox fans... just grin

Hey fellow Red Sox fans... do me a favor. Stay off the Yankee message boards today.
Don't write on Yankee blogs and don't gloat.

Yeah the Yankees did a faceplant and couldn't take advantage of having Verlander rained out to only one start. They stranded a 25 man roster on base last night and A-Rod is back to being a goat.

Trust me, I understand. I LOVE the sight of the Yankees staring from the dugout with the collective "How did it get to here?" 1,000 yard stare.

It's great.
I'm reading all the articles breaking down the Yankee's disappointing ending which are all basically the same article that has been written EVERY fall since 2001 with the exception of 2009.

I'm watching the clips.

But I'm not gloating.

The Red Sox did an epic collapse and couldn't make the playoffs.
The Yankees collapse wasn't epic. It was more of a whimper.

So yeah, it takes a little of the sting out knowing that there won't be ANOTHER parade in New York.

But that's not reason to gloat.
Just grin and revel in a little Schadenfreude.

Terry Francona... the greatest manager in Red Sox history

That's the only way Francona should EVER be referred to by a Red Sox fan.
Yes he inherited a good team that could have won the 2003 pennant had Grady Little not been the manager.

Sometimes, despite what Billy Beane and the producers of Moneyball think, the manager DOES matter.

Sometimes part of a managers job isn't to check up the latest VORP or WAR or whatever algebra is trendy now. Sometimes it is managing the egos, the pressure and the media market.

Little wasn't the guy. He proved that not with the Red Sox but when the Dodgers fell apart under his watch.

Francona learned from his rocky tenure managing the Phillies and became Joe Torre lite in Boston. Doesn't get too high or low. Manages the insane Boston media and a fan base that was literally about to commit mass suicide in the wake of 2003.

And the city was going to burn to the ground when they were down 0-3 to the Yankees with Rivera on the mound. And Francona had the calmness and peace of mind to give Dave Roberts a wink when he came in to pinch run for Millar.

This guy was different.
He didn't bring in Jim Burton instead of Dick Drago in the 9th inning of Game 7 like Darrell Johnson did in 1975.
He didn't bench Bill Lee in favor of Bobby Sprowl and wear Butch Hobson and Carlton Fisk down the stretch like Don Zimmer did in 1978.
He didn't bring Calvin Schraldi into every pressure situation in 1986 like John McNamara did.
He didn't make a series of absolutely bizarre decisions long before he left Pedro in too long like Grady Little did.

He made the right ones.
He pushed Keith Foulke and Curt Schilling.
He out managed Joe Torre BADLY in 2004.

He won 95 games the next season without a reliable 3, 4 or 5 starter nor a decent closer.

He came back from 3-1 AGAIN in 2007, never losing faith in struggling J. D. Drew and having it pay off with his series turning Grand Slam in Game 6 against Cleveland.

And he nearly came back from ANOTHER 3-1 hole against Tampa in 2008.

Yes Joe Cronin won more games as a Red Sox manager, but Cronin never had to manage with the pressure of the 24 hour media.

Cronin never had the burden of the Curse.

And Cronin never won ONE World Series, let alone TWO!

Francona's main job was to manage the clubhouse and the media. And he felt he couldn't do it anymore and he is gone.

The 2011 collapse wasn't Francona's fault. The blame should lie on the front office who assembled this mismatch of players.

But Francona, oozing with class right until the end, took responsibility and blamed nobody but himself.

He will wind up somewhere else. (Baltimore? The White Sox? The Cubs? The Astros?) But he should have been a Red Sox lifer.

I really thought a third pennant would put him in a Hall of Fame discussion. Maybe it will.

But when he returns to Fenway in another uniform, there had better be a 20 minute standing ovation for him.

We wanted one title before we died.
Tito made sure we had two.

I for one will miss our manager.

I frankly don't care if the Red Sox were drunk

The way they were playing down the stretch, I don't blame them for at least trying something different.

Man next year is going to suck.

Some cold Fenway years are coming

I had really hoped that I'd be talking about Game 1 and 2 versus Texas and how the Red Sox fared.

Instead I am looking at an aftermath of a collapse so horrible that we Red Sox fans are thinking "How did THIS happen again?"

(And Braves fans are thinking "Thanks for deflecting attention away from us.")

Now there is a logical way to look at The Great Collapse of 2011.
The team's pitching staff was thin. Buchholz and Dice-K were hurt, Wakefield is done, Lackey is a bust and Andrew Miller showed why the Tigers and Marlins gave up on him.

Throw in some key injuries (Youk and Drew) and an inconsistent Lester down the stretch (and a shockingly awful Daniel Bard) and you have a lousy September.

Logically you look at it and say "Get rid of some deadwood, use the money coming off the books from Drew and Dice-K for arms but don't get seduced by a Lackey deal again."

Instead what is the aftermath?
Francona is gone.
The clubhouse is fractured.
Some of the not exactly cuddly personalities are running the asylum.
Theo, whose post 2007 record hasn't exactly been sterling, is escaping blame.

And no doubt Papelbon, Ortiz, Wakefield, Varitek and others will be gone soon.

Get used to John Lackey in a Sox uniform.
Don't expect Carl Crawford to go anywhere.

Someone else will be the manager.

This era is over. And with it be prepared to have some lean times and some REALLY embarrassing baseball.

Look at the Cubs and Mets. Big budget and big market teams who can't put a winner on the field. Two teams hamstrung by the "We just went for it" contracts of a few years ago. The managers have gone as have the post season appearances.

That's going to be the Red Sox starting in 2012.
Expensive, not competitive and hard to watch.

Oh I will root for them and hope to be surprised. But everything is pointing to a bunch of empty Octobers in Fenway.

The best teams I remember seeing in my life include the Yankees, Royals, Phillies and Dodgers of the late 1970s, early 1980s... the Mets of the mid 1980s... the A's from 1988-1992, the Blue Jays from the mid 1980s through the 1993 World Series... the Braves from 1991 to 2005... and the Joe Torre Yankees.

They all ended.

This era for the Red Sox is ending.
There will be another Red Sox champion. Maybe Pedroia and Ellsbury and Lester will be the veteran champions who lead that team.

But it won't be soon.
This is Philadelphia's time to shine.

And someday soon they will return to earth.
Just like the Sox did.

Terry Francona to leave the Red Sox... STUPID STUPID Red Sox

Terry Francona is not coming back to the Red Sox.
It is a monumentally stupid decision.

Terry Francona didn't assemble this pitching staff.
Terry Francona didn't make a series of bone numbingly stupid moves.
Terry Francona isn't an incompetent pitching coach.

Had Dan Johnson and Nolan Reimold swung and missed he would have had the Red Sox in the playoffs using four pitchers with ERAs over 5 in the month of September.

This wasn't Terry's fault.
And the man who outmanaged Joe Torre in 2004 and won the only 2 World Series the Red Sox have won since World War I is being booted.

Stupid stupid stupid.

New Sully Baseball Video "It Wasn't Bill Buckner's Fault"

Maybe it is appropriate that I bring up the Bill Buckner play the day after the Red Sox did the Great Faceplant of 2011.

In the latest Sully Baseball video, I am starting a new series.

"Baseball Myths and Facts." And it turns out there are so many of them that I will do a few videos on this topic.

I tackle the Buckner error first because even really good baseball people get that one wrong.

Enjoy the video.

And as always, you can see all the videos at my ShortForm TV page.

For the AL MVP vote, it is Verlander over Ellsbury

If Dan Johnson and Nolan Reimold both struck out last night in the bottom of the 9th, the Red Sox would be in the playoffs.

And if they were in the playoffs, Jacoby Ellsbury, who led the American League in total bases, hit .321, had an OPS of .928 out of the lead off spot, had an OPS+ of 146, hit 32 homers, drove in 105 runs, stole 39 bases, had a 7.2 WAR and hit key homers down the stretch, would be the AL MVP.

But they are not in the playoffs. Dan Johnson and Nolan Reimold did NOT swing and miss.
And now it should go to Justin Verlander.

No one player had the impact that he did. The Tigers did not go on a prolonged losing streak after April. The Tigers had a solid bullpen and were consistent each month after April.

And the biggest reason is they knew every 5 days they had a win and the bullpen essentially had a night off. He won 13 of his last 15 starts including 12 in a row, giving the Tigers 7 or more innings in all but 2 of them.

Even the nights where he didn't have his best stuff, he made sure the bullpen wasn't taxed. And the line up didn't have to score a ton to pull out a win.

And he led the league in wins, winning percentage, starts, innings, strikeouts, ERA, ERA+, fewest hits for 9 innings and fewest baserunners over 9 innings.

And he threw a no hitter.

His value impacted the games before and after he pitched, so don't give me the nonsense that he only played in 34 games.

He also faced 969 batters.
Did any every day player have 969 plate appearances?

Didn't think so.

Give it to Verlander... although with two missed swings it would have been Ellsbury.

THE FINAL TALLY

Think was a teeth grinder?

This was a franchise changer.
The Mets haven't been able to shrug 2007 and they won't until they win the World Series.

See also the 2011 Boston Red Sox.

For the last time all year, I will update the tally.

DODGED BULLET GAMES - 48

April 8 - 9-6 win against the Yankees. (The Sox end their 6 game losing streak with a slugfest. John Lackey stinks but Phil Hughes stinks even more.)
April 10 - 4-0 win against the Yankees. (Beckett and Sabathia duel in a game that was 1-0 until the late innings.)
April 20 - 5-3 win in Oakland. (Red Sox survive a lead off homer and two bases loaded situations and facing the tying run at the plate to win their first road game.)
April 21 - 4-2 win in Anaheim. (The Red Sox stranded 15 men on base and Josh Beckett's went 8 strong with no decision. But the Sox rallied in the 11th to win.)
April 22 - 4-3 win in Anaheim. (Peter Bourjos makes a 2 run errors and the Red Sox survive a bizarre passed ball by Jarrod Saltalamacchia that let a run scored from second.)
May 1 - 3-2 win against the Mariners. (Ichiro loses a ball in the sun that turns into a 9th inning triple for Lowrie. Crawford singles him home for the win.)
May 8 - 9-5 win against the Twins. (Dice-K lets up 3 runs in the first but settles down as the Red Sox clobber Carl Pavano.)

May 9 - 2-1 win against the Twins. (A bullpen breakdown cost Beckett the decision but Cark Crawford ended the game with an 11th inning walk off hit.)
May 13 - 5-4 win in the Bronx. (Youkilis homers off of Joba and Bard and Papelbon make it more interesting than it needed to be.)
May 15 - 7-5 win in the Bronx. (Sox fall behind 4-1 but come back as Youk, Papi and Salty all homer.)
May 16 - 8-7 win against the Orioles. (Down 6-0 after 6 innings, the Sox rally and win it with a 2 run walk off double by Adrian Gonzalez)
May 18 - 1-0 win against Detroit. (With 2 outs in the 8th, Salty doubles home Crawford from first for the only run. Papelbon gets himself in and out of 9th inning trouble.)
May 19 - 4-3 win against Detroit. (Bard blows Beckett's lead but Carl Crawford wins it with a walk off hit.)
May 24 - 4-2 win in Cleveland. (Varitek throws two runners out and homers as the Red Sox win their first game against the Indians.)
May 29 - 4-3 win in Detroit. (The Red Sox blow an early 3-0 lead but David Ortiz wins the game with a pinch 9th inning homer.)
June 3 - 8-6 win against Oakland. (Buchholz lets up 4 runs in the first but the Sox come back thanks to Carl Crawford's 2 run single.)
June 4 - 9-8 win against Oakland. (Red Sox blow a 4 run 9th inning lead and trail in the 11th before Ellsbury ties it and Drew wins it in 14.)
June 7 - 6-4 win in the Bronx. (Papelbon strikes out A-Rod to end the game with a runner on base.)
June 9 - 8-3 win in the Bronx. (Down 2-0 to Sabathia in the 7th, the Sox score 7 runs as Papi exacts revenge after getting plunked. A 3+ hour rain delay pushed the game past 1:30 AM)

June 15 - 3-0 win in Tampa Bay. (Youkilis homers in the 7th for the only runs in Beckett's 1 hit masterpiece.)
June 16 - 4-2 win in Tampa Bay. (Papelbon wiggles out of a 2 on, nobody out jam in the 9th thanks to Youk's diving catch.)
June 26 - 4-2 win in Pittsburgh. (The Pirates make 4 errors and the Red Sox score 2 in the 7th to avoid a sweep by the Bucs.
June 30 - 5-2 win in Philadelphia.(An injury to Cole Hamels leads to the Red Sox bats waking up.)
July 1 - 7-5 win in Houston. (The Sox score 6 in the 7th inning to come back and win.)
July 3 - 2-1 win in Houston. (The Red Sox score a run in the top of the 9th on a walk to break a tie.)
July 5 - 3-2 win against Toronto. (Lester gets hurt but Darnel McDonald throws out the tying run at the plate to end the game.)
July 6 - 6-4 win against Toronto. (The Sox score 4 in the 4th to take the lead and Wakefield and company hang on for dear life.)
July 10 - 8-6 win against Baltimore. (The Orioles score 6 runs off of rookie Kyle Weiland in the second, but the Red Sox hit three homers in the bottom of the second to tie the game and hold for dear life.)
July 16 - 9-5 win in Tampa. (Lackey puts the Sox in a 3-0 first inning hole, but 3 Sox homers bring them back for the win.)
July 17 - 1-0 win in Tampa. (Beckett throws a masterpiece and the bullpen throws 8 amazing innings. But the Sox bats go dead, leaving 17 men on base before Pedroia drove in a run with 2 outs in the 16th inning.)
July 18 - 15-10 win in Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 6-2 lead but score 8 runs in the 8th to take the game.)
July 22 - 7-4 win against Seattle. (John Lackey beat Felix Hernandez and Mike Carp's error helped the Red Sox score 5 in the 7th to give them some breathing room.)
July 23 - 3-1 win against Seattle. (Ellsbury gets Beckett off the hook in a tight pitchers duel when he got a 2 out, 2 strike 2 run go ahead single in the 8th.)
July 26 - 13-9 win against the Royals. (The Sox trailed in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th before the bats exploded in the 5th.
August 2 - 3-2 win against Cleveland. (Youk tied the game with a 6th inning homer and Salty dove home for the winning run in the 9th.)
August 3 - 4-3 win against Cleveland. (Ellsbury hits a walk off shot in the 9th.)
August 7 - 3-2 win against the Yankees (The Sox rally off of Rivera in the 9th and win on Josh Reddick's 10th inning single)
August 8 - 8-6 win in Minnesota. (Down 5-1, the Red Sox rally back, then score twice in the 9th to give the Sox the win.)
August 9 - 4-3 win in Minnesota. (Darnell McDonald's homer ties the game and Ortiz singles home the game winner as Bard worked out of trouble in the 7th.)
August 12 - 6-4 win in Seattle. (Reddick and Ortiz homered to bail out Lackey.)

August 16 - 3-1 win against Tampa Bay. (Pedroia makes a diving catch in the 9th to help preserve the win.)
August 18 - 4-3 win at Kansas City. (Sox hold on despite having three base runners thrown out by the outfielders.)
August 31 - 9-5 win against the Yankees. (Beckett blows a 4-1 lead but homers by Ellsbury and Varitek put the Sox on top.)
September 13 - 18-6 win against Toronto. (Wakefield blows 2 early leads but the Sox bats explode in the 6th to earn Wakes win #200.)

September 16 - 4-3 win against Tampa Bay. (Beckett, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon all wiggled out of jams to give the Red Sox a critical win.)
September 19 - 18-9 win against Baltimore. (Lackey was given 11 runs to work with but the Orioles cut it to 11-9 before a 7 run rally put the game away.)
September 25 - 7-4 win in the Bronx. (The Red Sox came back from a 3-0 hole to win in the 14th on Jacoby Ellsbury's 2 out 3 run homer and avoid a sweep.)
September 27 - 8-7 win in Baltimore. (Ryan Lavarnway hits 2 homers and somehow Papelbon hangs on to keep the Red Sox tied with the Rays.)

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 46

April 1 - 9-5 loss in Texas. (The Sox tie Opening Day in the 8th with an Ortiz homer only to have Bard implode and the Sox let up 4 in the bottom of the 8th.)

April 5 - 3-1 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox drop their 4th straight as the bats are dead in Cleveland.)
April 7 - 1-0 loss in Cleveland. (Sox blow a great Lester performance on a squeeze bunt and Darnell McDonald overrunning the bag to end the game.)
April 12 - 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. (A solid Lester performance is wasted as Kyle Farnsworth of all people shuts down the Sox.)
April 15 - 7-6 loss to Toronto. (Bobby Jenks implodes with a 4 run seventh inning as the Red Sox waste Pedroia and Youkilis homers and a clutch RBI double by Scuatro.
April 19 - 5-0 loss in Oakland. (Pedroia gets picked off, the Sox bats go dead and waste a solid Lackey start.)
April 26 - 4-1 loss in Baltimore. (Buchholz pitches tentatively and the Sox let Kevin Gregg of all people to close out the 9th.)
April 27 - 5-4 loss in Baltimore. (The Sox tie the game with a 3 run 8th only to have Bard lose it in the bottom of the 8th.)
April 29 - 5-4 loss to Mariners. (Bobby Jenks blows a 7th inning lead, wasting 2 Mike Cameron homers.)
April 30 - 2-0 loss to Mariners. (The Sox strand 11 runners and let Milton Bradley double home the go ahead run.)
May 4 - 5-3 loss to Angels. (7 hours with rain delays and stranded runners. Marco Scutaro was thrown out at the plate in the 12th)
May 10 - 7-6 loss in Toronto. (8th and 9th inning heroics, including a homer by Adrian Gonzalez, are undone by a walk off sacrifice fly by David Cooper.)
May 21 - 9-3 loss to Cubs. (Up 3-1 in the 8th inning, the bullpen and defense implode. The Cubs score 8 runs while both teams wear their 1918 uniforms.)
May 23- 3-2 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox blow a 2-1 8th inning lead when the Indians rally with 2 outs. Crawford ends the game on a double play.)
May 29 - 3-0 loss in Detroit. (Verlander keeps the Sox off base and prevents the sweep.)
June 1 - 7-4 loss to White Sox. (Konerko drives in three, spoiling a game tying Ortiz homer.)

June 14 - 4-0 loss in Tampa Bay. (Wakefield's solid outing is spoiled. Longoria scores on a passed ball.)
June 18 - 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. (The Brewers hit three homers early off of Lester and hang on.)
June 21 - 5-4 loss to San Diego. (Ortiz hits a double play in the 9th to stifle a potential winning rally.)

June 24 - 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox strand 7 runners in scoring position.)
June 25 - 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox fall out of first as Pedroia's error leads to a Pirates run.)
June 29 - 2-1 loss in Philadelphia. (Vance Worley duels John Lackey and slumping Raul Ibanez drives in both runs.)
July 4 - 9-7 loss to Toronto. (John Lackey's miserable start puts the Sox in too big a hole to climb out of.)
July 19 - 6-2 loss in Baltimore. (Scutaro gets thrown out stealing and the Orioles tack on 3 big runs late.)

July 25 - 3-1 loss to the Royals. (Scutaro botches a potential game winning squeeze play in the 12th as the Red Sox lose in 14.)

July 28 - 4-3 loss to the Royals. (Crawford's bid for a walk off homer falls just short.)
July 29 - 3-1 loss to the White Sox. (Sox blow a late 1-0 lead and spoil a solid Wakefield start.)

August 1 - 9-6 loss to Cleveland. (Asdrubal Cabrera's second home run was an 8th inning tie breaking shot off of Daniel Bard.)

August 4 - 7-3 loss to Cleveland. (Carlos Santana's homer broke a 3-3 tie.)
August 5 - 3-2 loss to the Yankees. (The Sox leave the bases loaded in the 5th and the Yankees score 3 in the 6th to take the lead.)
August 10 - 5-2 in Minnesota. (The Twins score 3 in the 8th, spoiling Ortiz's game tying homer.)
August 13 - 5-4 loss in Seattle. (Mariners score 5 in the first and the Red Sox come back falls short.)
August 14 - 5-3 loss in Seattle. (The Red Sox comeback falls short as Wakefield loses a complete game).

August 16 - 6-2 loss against Tampa Bay. (The Red Sox pull a triple play but a late rally by the Rays puts the game out of reach.)

August 21 - 9-4 loss at Kansas City. (The Royals' 8 run 6th spoils a 4-1 Sox lead and Wakefield's bid to win 200 games.)
August 30 - 5-2 loss to the Yankees. (Sabathia finally beats the Sox and Cervelli's homer sparks bean balls.)
September 1 - 4-2 loss to the Yankees. (Russell Martin's 2 run double in the 7th put the Yankees on top for good. Rivera struck out Gonzalez with the bases loaded to end the game.)

September 5 - 1-0 loss in Toronto. (Beckett sprains his ankle and Brett Lawrie homered in the 11th to win.)
September 7 - 11-10 loss in Toronto. (Bard melts down in the 8th, preventing Tim Wakefield's 200th win. Aviles is thrown out trying to steal to end the game.)
September 10 - 6-5 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox get 2 homers in the 9th to tie the game only to lose it in the 11th.)
September 14 - 5-4 loss to Toronto. (Adam Loewen singled home 2 runs in the Blue Jays 3 run 8th inning, making Bard a loser AGAIN!)
September 17 - 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay. (Scutaro grounds out to end the game with the tying run on second.)
September 19 - 6-5 loss to Baltimore. (Kyle Weiland gets bombed, Darnell McDonald drops a ball, a fair ball is called foul... just a bad day all around.)
September 20 - 7-5 loss to Baltimore. ( hit a 3 run double with 2 outs in the 8th to give Baltimore the win.)
September 21 - 6-4 loss to Baltimore. (Crawford goes 3-4 but Beckett can't hold onto a lead as the Orioles rally in the 8th.)
September 26 - 6-3 loss to Baltimore. (An inside the park homer off of Ellsbury's glove put the game away and the Rays caught Boston.)
September 28 - 4-3 loss in Baltimore. (The Red Sox season implodes as the Orioles rally with 2 outs and nobody on to shock Papelbon and send the Red Sox spiraling.)

+2.

Yup. The Red Sox won 2 more games that they should have lost than lost games they should have won.

In a season with a historic collapse, you'd think the opposite would be true. But using this as a guide, the Sox could have been described as a clutch team.

Just goes to show how numbers can be deceiving.

If the Red Sox only were mediocre at the beginning and end

So the Red Sox blew the incredible lead to play golf this October. They were shockingly dreadful in September.

But remember how they lost their first 6 games and 10 of their first 12?
The Red Sox finished the season 90-72.

And they were 11-15 in April and a eye popping 7-20 in September.

In other words they were 18-35 in April and September and 72-37 the rest of the season.

Imagine if they weren't awful but merely mediocre at the bookends of the season.
Instead of being 17 games under .500 in those 2 months, what if they were just 1 game under .500?

That would be a 26-27 record in the 53 games of April and September. Not unreasonable for a consensus World Series pick.

And if they did that and played the rest of the season the same way, they would have had a 98-64 record... a game ahead of the Yankees.

If only they rose to the level of "eh."

7 THINGS RED SOX FANS SHOULD BE HAPPY ABOUT TONIGHT!

OK, it might not seem like there is much to be happy about tonight. The Rays were getting killed... the Red Sox were winning.

The Rays were a strike away from losing and the Sox were a strike away from winning.

And then NOTHING went right.
So what can we feel GOOD about?

I found a few things.

1. Young Red Sox fans have THEIR moment of angst!

I have a formula that you start to follow a team and know the players when you are 7 or 8 years old.

Keeping that in mind, every Red Sox fan 15 years or younger only know the Sox as a team that is capable of winning the World Series. The idea of them being able to let you down is unheard of for them. They are too young to remember Aaron Boone... they have memories of 2004 but much clearer ones of 2007.

Now they have experienced 2011. They can turn to us older fans and say "Was it ALWAYS like this?" And we can say "It was WORSE!"


2. The loss shows that we are stronger as a fan base

Since winning the 2004 and 2007 World Series, the Red Sox lost a heart breaking 7 game series against Tampa, saw a Papelbon melt down to end the 2009 playoffs, missed the playoffs in back to back seasons including this year's historic face plant.

And oh yeah. The Yankees won a World Series in that stretch.

A season like this will toughen us up a bit. Maybe it will weed out some of the band wagon pink hat fans.

And frankly the losses don't hurt as badly as they used to. You don't have the "When will I EVER see them win?" angst.

And when the Sox DO win again, it will be sweeter.


3. Isn't it nice to lose without being reminded how long its been since you've won?

There were no black and white clips. No Bucky Dent homers being shown on a loop. No mentions of curses. Nobody was looking for a piano in the bottom of a lake in Sudbury.

This wasn't metaphysical.
The answer to the question "Why did the Red Sox lose in 2011" isn't being posed to an exorcist.

It is about baseball. Their pitching sucked.
Most of their starting pitchers were awful. Bard was rotten. No mystery.

4. There was no 2011 Red Sox champagne celebration

Even if they won, they didn't earn it.



5. Maybe this will help Theo kick his "expensive free agent habit."

Theo helped construct two World Series winners by following the blue print of the 1990's Yankees.

These days they resemble the Yankees of the 1980s! Expensive, full of stars and yet not good enough to make the post season.

For the second straight year, injuries and a shockingly thin pitching staff derailed the Red Sox. And some gigantic unmovable contracts are eating up payroll.

With J. D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka coming off of the books, the temptation will be "BUY MORE STARS!" I say no. Develop more Ryan Lavarnways! Throw that money into developing players from within.

Remember, we were all happy when Crawford arrived. And how symbolic was it that the ball JUST eluded Crawford to end the season while his old team went on to win because of superior young talent and a stronger farm system.

Another title can't be bought, Theo. Develop the next winner. We'll wait.


6. We still have the old DVDs to watch

The era of Idiots and Cowboy Up is over.

Varitek, Wakefield and Ortiz may or may not even be on the team next year. Papelbon is probably gone. Drew and Dice-K (both 2007 post season heroes) are all but gone.

Manny, Schilling, Pedro, Lowell, Meuller, Damon... they are all gone.

A new Sox team is slowly emerging. Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youk and Ellsbury are the new leaders but whenever a new pennant winner will emerge, it will look and feel quite different from the '04 and '07 team.

It's the end of the greatest stretch in Red Sox history.
Let's savor it.

It wasn't long ago that were were resigned to the fact that we would NEVER see our team win the World Series.

It's happened twice. It's been glorious.
It's over. And man it was fun.

7. You can spend this October with your family

Remember them?
Instead of fretting over the Red Sox all October and cursing at the screen, go talk to your wife, your kids, your husband, your mom and dad.

Go do some fun fall things.
Oh make a self deprecating Red Sox joke while you are at it, but you will be amazed how much time you will have on your hands now.

And wear your Sox hat while you go out too!

Show that you are not a fair weather fan.

Yeah it was a rough night. But that's what makes us tough fans.

Walk tall Sox fans.

Do you really expect me to write about tonight?

It was the greatest regular season day in baseball history.
And I stand by my opinion that if today, with the Braves extra inning loss, the Rays mind boggling come from behind win, the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Rangers fighting for home field advantage on LABOR DAY it would be the biggest sporting event of the summer.

Alas.
The Red Sox did a face plant.
An all time face plant.

This was worse than the 2007 Mets.
This will stink over the Red Sox franchise until they win another World Series.

Ah well.

Time for beddy bye.
I am sure I will have many profound things to say tomorrow.

Quite a big swing between today's potential outcomes

A Yankee friend of mine, no doubt pushing my buttons, asked me where the Red Sox collapse of 2011 ranks.

I wouldn't give him a definite answer because there currently IS none.

How can I rank something that hasn't ended yet?
There is a very big difference between what could happen.

If the Red Sox lose and don't make it to the playoffs, then it is one of the great collapses in baseball history and remembered for all time.

If the Red Sox win and make it to the playoffs, their September swoon will be totally forgotten by Friday.

That's a big swing... All Time or Friday.

Last night we ALL thought that the Orioles were going to win with a walk off homer. You did. I did.

But the Red Sox somehow won.
They won the Lavarn-Way!

Teeth were ground. Bullets were dodged. And the season comes down to Jon Lester pitching like Jon Lester of April-August and not the chump pitching this September.

I'm updating the tally.

DODGED BULLET GAMES - 48

April 8 - 9-6 win against the Yankees. (The Sox end their 6 game losing streak with a slugfest. John Lackey stinks but Phil Hughes stinks even more.)
April 10 - 4-0 win against the Yankees. (Beckett and Sabathia duel in a game that was 1-0 until the late innings.)
April 20 - 5-3 win in Oakland. (Red Sox survive a lead off homer and two bases loaded situations and facing the tying run at the plate to win their first road game.)
April 21 - 4-2 win in Anaheim. (The Red Sox stranded 15 men on base and Josh Beckett's went 8 strong with no decision. But the Sox rallied in the 11th to win.)
April 22 - 4-3 win in Anaheim. (Peter Bourjos makes a 2 run errors and the Red Sox survive a bizarre passed ball by Jarrod Saltalamacchia that let a run scored from second.)
May 1 - 3-2 win against the Mariners. (Ichiro loses a ball in the sun that turns into a 9th inning triple for Lowrie. Crawford singles him home for the win.)
May 8 - 9-5 win against the Twins. (Dice-K lets up 3 runs in the first but settles down as the Red Sox clobber Carl Pavano.)

May 9 - 2-1 win against the Twins. (A bullpen breakdown cost Beckett the decision but Cark Crawford ended the game with an 11th inning walk off hit.)
May 13 - 5-4 win in the Bronx. (Youkilis homers off of Joba and Bard and Papelbon make it more interesting than it needed to be.)
May 15 - 7-5 win in the Bronx. (Sox fall behind 4-1 but come back as Youk, Papi and Salty all homer.)
May 16 - 8-7 win against the Orioles. (Down 6-0 after 6 innings, the Sox rally and win it with a 2 run walk off double by Adrian Gonzalez)
May 18 - 1-0 win against Detroit. (With 2 outs in the 8th, Salty doubles home Crawford from first for the only run. Papelbon gets himself in and out of 9th inning trouble.)
May 19 - 4-3 win against Detroit. (Bard blows Beckett's lead but Carl Crawford wins it with a walk off hit.)
May 24 - 4-2 win in Cleveland. (Varitek throws two runners out and homers as the Red Sox win their first game against the Indians.)
May 29 - 4-3 win in Detroit. (The Red Sox blow an early 3-0 lead but David Ortiz wins the game with a pinch 9th inning homer.)
June 3 - 8-6 win against Oakland. (Buchholz lets up 4 runs in the first but the Sox come back thanks to Carl Crawford's 2 run single.)
June 4 - 9-8 win against Oakland. (Red Sox blow a 4 run 9th inning lead and trail in the 11th before Ellsbury ties it and Drew wins it in 14.)
June 7 - 6-4 win in the Bronx. (Papelbon strikes out A-Rod to end the game with a runner on base.)
June 9 - 8-3 win in the Bronx. (Down 2-0 to Sabathia in the 7th, the Sox score 7 runs as Papi exacts revenge after getting plunked. A 3+ hour rain delay pushed the game past 1:30 AM)

June 15 - 3-0 win in Tampa Bay. (Youkilis homers in the 7th for the only runs in Beckett's 1 hit masterpiece.)
June 16 - 4-2 win in Tampa Bay. (Papelbon wiggles out of a 2 on, nobody out jam in the 9th thanks to Youk's diving catch.)
June 26 - 4-2 win in Pittsburgh. (The Pirates make 4 errors and the Red Sox score 2 in the 7th to avoid a sweep by the Bucs.
June 30 - 5-2 win in Philadelphia.(An injury to Cole Hamels leads to the Red Sox bats waking up.)
July 1 - 7-5 win in Houston. (The Sox score 6 in the 7th inning to come back and win.)
July 3 - 2-1 win in Houston. (The Red Sox score a run in the top of the 9th on a walk to break a tie.)
July 5 - 3-2 win against Toronto. (Lester gets hurt but Darnel McDonald throws out the tying run at the plate to end the game.)
July 6 - 6-4 win against Toronto. (The Sox score 4 in the 4th to take the lead and Wakefield and company hang on for dear life.)
July 10 - 8-6 win against Baltimore. (The Orioles score 6 runs off of rookie Kyle Weiland in the second, but the Red Sox hit three homers in the bottom of the second to tie the game and hold for dear life.)
July 16 - 9-5 win in Tampa. (Lackey puts the Sox in a 3-0 first inning hole, but 3 Sox homers bring them back for the win.)
July 17 - 1-0 win in Tampa. (Beckett throws a masterpiece and the bullpen throws 8 amazing innings. But the Sox bats go dead, leaving 17 men on base before Pedroia drove in a run with 2 outs in the 16th inning.)
July 18 - 15-10 win in Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 6-2 lead but score 8 runs in the 8th to take the game.)
July 22 - 7-4 win against Seattle. (John Lackey beat Felix Hernandez and Mike Carp's error helped the Red Sox score 5 in the 7th to give them some breathing room.)
July 23 - 3-1 win against Seattle. (Ellsbury gets Beckett off the hook in a tight pitchers duel when he got a 2 out, 2 strike 2 run go ahead single in the 8th.)
July 26 - 13-9 win against the Royals. (The Sox trailed in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th before the bats exploded in the 5th.
August 2 - 3-2 win against Cleveland. (Youk tied the game with a 6th inning homer and Salty dove home for the winning run in the 9th.)
August 3 - 4-3 win against Cleveland. (Ellsbury hits a walk off shot in the 9th.)
August 7 - 3-2 win against the Yankees (The Sox rally off of Rivera in the 9th and win on Josh Reddick's 10th inning single)
August 8 - 8-6 win in Minnesota. (Down 5-1, the Red Sox rally back, then score twice in the 9th to give the Sox the win.)
August 9 - 4-3 win in Minnesota. (Darnell McDonald's homer ties the game and Ortiz singles home the game winner as Bard worked out of trouble in the 7th.)
August 12 - 6-4 win in Seattle. (Reddick and Ortiz homered to bail out Lackey.)

August 16 - 3-1 win against Tampa Bay. (Pedroia makes a diving catch in the 9th to help preserve the win.)
August 18 - 4-3 win at Kansas City. (Sox hold on despite having three base runners thrown out by the outfielders.)
August 31 - 9-5 win against the Yankees. (Beckett blows a 4-1 lead but homers by Ellsbury and Varitek put the Sox on top.)
September 13 - 18-6 win against Toronto. (Wakefield blows 2 early leads but the Sox bats explode in the 6th to earn Wakes win #200.)

September 16 - 4-3 win against Tampa Bay. (Beckett, Aceves, Bard and Papelbon all wiggled out of jams to give the Red Sox a critical win.)
September 19 - 18-9 win against Baltimore. (Lackey was given 11 runs to work with but the Orioles cut it to 11-9 before a 7 run rally put the game away.)
September 25 - 7-4 win in the Bronx. (The Red Sox came back from a 3-0 hole to win in the 14th on Jacoby Ellsbury's 2 out 3 run homer and avoid a sweep.)
September 27 - 8-7 win in Baltimore. (Ryan Lavarnway hits 2 homers and somehow Papelbon hangs on to keep the Red Sox tied with the Rays.)

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 45

April 1 - 9-5 loss in Texas. (The Sox tie Opening Day in the 8th with an Ortiz homer only to have Bard implode and the Sox let up 4 in the bottom of the 8th.)

April 5 - 3-1 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox drop their 4th straight as the bats are dead in Cleveland.)
April 7 - 1-0 loss in Cleveland. (Sox blow a great Lester performance on a squeeze bunt and Darnell McDonald overrunning the bag to end the game.)
April 12 - 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. (A solid Lester performance is wasted as Kyle Farnsworth of all people shuts down the Sox.)
April 15 - 7-6 loss to Toronto. (Bobby Jenks implodes with a 4 run seventh inning as the Red Sox waste Pedroia and Youkilis homers and a clutch RBI double by Scuatro.
April 19 - 5-0 loss in Oakland. (Pedroia gets picked off, the Sox bats go dead and waste a solid Lackey start.)
April 26 - 4-1 loss in Baltimore. (Buchholz pitches tentatively and the Sox let Kevin Gregg of all people to close out the 9th.)
April 27 - 5-4 loss in Baltimore. (The Sox tie the game with a 3 run 8th only to have Bard lose it in the bottom of the 8th.)
April 29 - 5-4 loss to Mariners. (Bobby Jenks blows a 7th inning lead, wasting 2 Mike Cameron homers.)
April 30 - 2-0 loss to Mariners. (The Sox strand 11 runners and let Milton Bradley double home the go ahead run.)
May 4 - 5-3 loss to Angels. (7 hours with rain delays and stranded runners. Marco Scutaro was thrown out at the plate in the 12th)
May 10 - 7-6 loss in Toronto. (8th and 9th inning heroics, including a homer by Adrian Gonzalez, are undone by a walk off sacrifice fly by David Cooper.)
May 21 - 9-3 loss to Cubs. (Up 3-1 in the 8th inning, the bullpen and defense implode. The Cubs score 8 runs while both teams wear their 1918 uniforms.)
May 23- 3-2 loss in Cleveland. (The Sox blow a 2-1 8th inning lead when the Indians rally with 2 outs. Crawford ends the game on a double play.)
May 29 - 3-0 loss in Detroit. (Verlander keeps the Sox off base and prevents the sweep.)
June 1 - 7-4 loss to White Sox. (Konerko drives in three, spoiling a game tying Ortiz homer.)

June 14 - 4-0 loss in Tampa Bay. (Wakefield's solid outing is spoiled. Longoria scores on a passed ball.)
June 18 - 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. (The Brewers hit three homers early off of Lester and hang on.)
June 21 - 5-4 loss to San Diego. (Ortiz hits a double play in the 9th to stifle a potential winning rally.)

June 24 - 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox strand 7 runners in scoring position.)
June 25 - 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh. (The Red Sox fall out of first as Pedroia's error leads to a Pirates run.)
June 29 - 2-1 loss in Philadelphia. (Vance Worley duels John Lackey and slumping Raul Ibanez drives in both runs.)
July 4 - 9-7 loss to Toronto. (John Lackey's miserable start puts the Sox in too big a hole to climb out of.)
July 19 - 6-2 loss in Baltimore. (Scutaro gets thrown out stealing and the Orioles tack on 3 big runs late.)

July 25 - 3-1 loss to the Royals. (Scutaro botches a potential game winning squeeze play in the 12th as the Red Sox lose in 14.)

July 28 - 4-3 loss to the Royals. (Crawford's bid for a walk off homer falls just short.)
July 29 - 3-1 loss to the White Sox. (Sox blow a late 1-0 lead and spoil a solid Wakefield start.)

August 1 - 9-6 loss to Cleveland. (Asdrubal Cabrera's second home run was an 8th inning tie breaking shot off of Daniel Bard.)

August 4 - 7-3 loss to Cleveland. (Carlos Santana's homer broke a 3-3 tie.)
August 5 - 3-2 loss to the Yankees. (The Sox leave the bases loaded in the 5th and the Yankees score 3 in the 6th to take the lead.)
August 10 - 5-2 in Minnesota. (The Twins score 3 in the 8th, spoiling Ortiz's game tying homer.)
August 13 - 5-4 loss in Seattle. (Mariners score 5 in the first and the Red Sox come back falls short.)
August 14 - 5-3 loss in Seattle. (The Red Sox comeback falls short as Wakefield loses a complete game).

August 16 - 6-2 loss against Tampa Bay. (The Red Sox pull a triple play but a late rally by the Rays puts the game out of reach.)

August 21 - 9-4 loss at Kansas City. (The Royals' 8 run 6th spoils a 4-1 Sox lead and Wakefield's bid to win 200 games.)
August 30 - 5-2 loss to the Yankees. (Sabathia finally beats the Sox and Cervelli's homer sparks bean balls.)
September 1 - 4-2 loss to the Yankees. (Russell Martin's 2 run double in the 7th put the Yankees on top for good. Rivera struck out Gonzalez with the bases loaded to end the game.)

September 5 - 1-0 loss in Toronto. (Beckett sprains his ankle and Brett Lawrie homered in the 11th to win.)
September 7 - 11-10 loss in Toronto. (Bard melts down in the 8th, preventing Tim Wakefield's 200th win. Aviles is thrown out trying to steal to end the game.)
September 10 - 6-5 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox get 2 homers in the 9th to tie the game only to lose it in the 11th.)
September 14 - 5-4 loss to Toronto. (Adam Loewen singled home 2 runs in the Blue Jays 3 run 8th inning, making Bard a loser AGAIN!)
September 17 - 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay. (Scutaro grounds out to end the game with the tying run on second.)
September 19 - 6-5 loss to Baltimore. (Kyle Weiland gets bombed, Darnell McDonald drops a ball, a fair ball is called foul... just a bad day all around.)
September 20 - 7-5 loss to Baltimore. ( hit a 3 run double with 2 outs in the 8th to give Baltimore the win.)
September 21 - 6-4 loss to Baltimore. (Crawford goes 3-4 but Beckett can't hold onto a lead as the Orioles rally in the 8th.)
September 26 - 6-3 loss to Baltimore. (An inside the park homer off of Ellsbury's glove put the game away and the Rays caught Boston.)

Back up to +3.
Something to remember when this season ends... they've won more games they should have lost than lost games they should have won.

Interesting.

The tally will be updated no matter what the outcome tonight.

Imagine if this was happening on Labor Day weekend

The Braves and Red Sox are fighting for their playoff lives.
The Rays and Cardinals are charging and could pull off the amazing upsets.
The Diamondbacks and Brewers are homering their way to potential home field advantage.
Matt Kemp is putting on a show to earn the MVP.

It's an AMAZING end to the regular season.
And it's happening on a Wednesday at the end of September.

Most casual sports fans have moved on to football.
Most parks will be half empty.

Can you imagine if this were happening on Labor Day?
Before football has saturated the sports market... before people's attention has wandered...

Can you imagine if people were actually following baseball how big this finale would be?

But I said all of that already.

Lisa Swan returns to the Sully Baseball Show to torment me

Lisa Swan, co creator of Subway Squawkers, returned to the Sully Baseball Show to essentially rub the Red Sox failures in my face. I take it. Because that's how I am.

Click below to hear the show,

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