Friday, November 28, 2008

Long and painful and done with

Wow, that was sure a bad season. Didn't quite it see it coming. Everything individual thing I was concerned about this year ended up being a major weakness. The inexperience and lack of talent on the OL, the lack of a QB suited to run the offense, the horrible play of safeties and LBs in coverage, etc. It all stunk and so did the team.

Kinda glad I was quite busy this fall and didn't have much time to peruse the internet much and certainly no time to do any blogging.

But the year of pain is over with and Michigan heads to the offseason with hope for 2009. Here's a quick preview of the offense for next year.


Quarterbacks

Steven Threet (RS Sophomore) - the 2008 de facto starter who split time with Nick Sheridan. He's long and lanky and has a strong arm. In fact, he's the spitting image of a Lloyd Carr-era Michigan quarterback. Unfortunately, he's got a long release and lacks quickness in the ground game and is woefully inaccurate on timing routes. He made some improvements as the season went along and had glimpses of good play in several games. He just couldn't put it together for long stretches. You have to think that he'll be better next season, but he'll also face a huge increase in competition.

Nick Sheridan (RS Junior) - opening day starter and Ohio State game starter in 2008. Former walkon who gave it his all and actually had a very good game at Minnesota. He just doesn't have the arm strength to threaten a defense vertically and he'll have a hard time seeing the field.

Shavodrick Beaver (Freshman) - He's 6'3" and 180 lbs and a 4 star recruit according to Rivals that Texas wanted as a WR. He is more talented as a runner than a passer and will add a new dimension to the offense. How advanced his passing is and how quickly he picks up the offense will be the primary determinants in how much PT he gets. UPDATE - scratch that idea, he decided to go to Tulsa instead.

Tate Forcier (Freshman) - He's 6'0" and 185 lbs and also a 4 star recruit by Rivals. You might remember one of his older brothers Jason as a former UM QB that transferred to Stanford. In contrast to Beaver, Forcier is more advanced as a passer but has some rushing skills. If he picks up the offense, he is probably the favorite to be the starter next season with his accurate passing.

That's a heck of a lot more talent and depth at QB than Michigan had in 2008. I'd venture a guess that Steven Threet is the opening game starter, but Forcier and Beaver will both get snaps. By the middle of the season I'd imagine Forcier will have picked up enough of the offense to be the starter.


Running Backs

Brandon Minor (Senior) - Finished 2008 as Michigan's leading rusher, which is where many people predicted him to be entering the season. He's big and strong and runs hard. Not the shiftiest back in the world, he is hard to stop at the point of attack. I look for big things from Brandon as a senior and he is definitely a candidate to crack 1000 yards in a much improved offense. He will, however, have to fight off a ton of competition to tote the rock.

Carlos Brown (Senior) - It seems that Carlos is always fighting injuries, but when he's healthy he is a solid back with good speed. I'm not sure if 2009 will be his chance to shine given the level of competition, but he does provide Michigan with another solid option.

Sam McGuffie (Sophomore) - Internet sensation and early season starter, McGuffie got his bell rung a few times and didn't see much action the 2nd half of the season. When healthy, he is an explosive runner in the open field that can make people miss. I imagine he will continue to earn snaps as part of a rotation next year. UPDATE - he decided to transfer for personal/family reasons

Michael Shaw (Sophomore) - A blazer in the open field, Shaw is probably Michigan's fastest player on offense. He still needs to improve his vision, but he's a home run threat every time he touches the ball. It's hard to keep that kind of speed off the field in this offense that generates so many gaps to run through.

Mike Cox (RS Freshman) - more of a big bruiser, he might earn some PT at fullback or short yardage situations next year.

Fitzgerald Touissant (Freshman) - a big play threat from Youngstown, Ohio, he has put up big numbers in HS. As you can see there is a ton of players ahead of him already, but he is definitely a threat to not redshirt.

Teric Jones (Freshman) - pint sized speedster from Cass Tech HS in Detroit, he will be hard pressed to beat out the players ahead of him as a true frosh.

Vincent Smith (Freshman) - pint sized speedster from Florida, who will be sitting alongside Jones working on his redshirt next year.

Quite a deep and talented group. Brandon Minor figures to lead the team in rushes and yards, but he'll be far from a workhorse as Rodriguez figures to rotate in guys like Brown, Shaw, McGuffie, and perhaps Touissant. It'll be a deep group that figures to push each individual to improve as the fight for more carries.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends


Greg Mathews (Senior) - easily Michigan's best true WR, he'll be their big target on the outside and counted on to provide big plays. Tied for the team lead in TD catches with 2 (!?!?!) last season, a total that will hopefully go up quite a bit with improved play at QB.

Martavious Odoms (Sophomore) - lead Michigan in catches and receiving yards last year as a true freshman, showcasing good hands and great moves in the open field. He's the prototype for what Rich Rodriguez wants in a slot WR and expect to see him have an outstanding career. He just needs to work on handling the cold weather a bit better.

Darryl Stonum (Sophomore) - coming off somewhat of a disappointing season as a highly touted recruit out of Texas. He only had 14 catches on the season and dropped a few easy ones. He's got good size and speed, though, and is dangerous after the catch. Look for big strides as a sophomore and Michigan's biggest deep threat.

Junior Hemingway (Junior) - hurt by injuries this year, he might actually have a shot at a redshirt. Regardless, he'll be in the mix for PT at outside WR in 2009 with his combination of size (6'1" 215 lbs) and speed.

Kevin Koger (Sophomore) - A big target at 6'4" and with good speed for a TE, he can produce some mismatches for the defense. TE isn't a big target in this offense, but he'll be a solid pass catching option.

Terrence Robinson (RS Freshman) - he was supposed to be a nice compliment to Martavious Odoms in the slot as a true frosh, but a knee injury lead to his redshirting. If healthy, look for him to provide another lightning quick smurf in the open field to play the slot opposite Odoms in 2009.

Roy Roundtree (RS Freshman) - tall and skinny, he'll fight for PT at outside WR.

James Rogers (Junior) - tall, skinny, and great speed. Not a natural at WR, but has the physical abilities to outmatch just about any DB he'll face.

Jeremy Gallon (Freshman) - another in the long line of smurf sized phenomenal athletes that Rodriguez will likely be recruiting to Michigan. He figures to fight for PT in the slot WR rotation with Odoms and Robinson.

Not quite as deep and talented as the RBs, there is still plenty of talent at WR. That's a good thing because they will be playing 3 or 4 per play most of the time. Mathews and Odoms are a quality pair of returning players, but youngsters like Darryl Stonum and Terrence Robinson will be fighting to get their own numbers called more often and it should help everyone.

Offensive Line


Stephen Schilling (RS Junior) - former 5 star recruit and two year starter at RT. Michigan will need him to be a force. He has always been more advanced as a run blocker than a pass blocker, and his improvement against speed rushers will be key to a strong passing game.

Mark Ortmann (RS Senior) - part-time starter at LT this year will be fighting for PT next year with the addition of loads of RS freshmen.

Perry Dorrenstein (RS Junior) - the other part-time starter at LT this year will also be fighting for PT next year.

David Molk (RS Sophomore) - surprisingly good as a freshman in the Big Ten. Center is a key spot in this spread offense and he held his own. I actually think he could be a pretty good player for quite some time in this system.

David Moosman (RS Senior) - full time starter at RG this past year. He had some decent moments, but far from a great player. He'll be fighting for PT next year.

John Ferrara (RS Junior) - he was a DT until this fall when he got pushed to the OL because of injuries. At first he just looked like he wanted to hit somebody, but as the season went along he seemed a bit more comfortable blocking. I can't wait to see what an entire offseason working with the OL can do for his technique.

Tim McAvoy (RS Senior) - former TE and part-time starter at LG, he will be hard pressed to beat out some of the youngsters for PT next year. Still not sure if he will come back for a 5th year or not.

Patrick Omameh (RS Freshman) - now entering the extremely bright future of the OL section of things with this freshman from Columbus, Ohio. He's got plenty of buzz from practice this year and should weigh heavily into the competition for PT next season. Entered Michigan at 6'4" and only 260 lbs, I think a season of Barwis-izing will have him up closer to 275 or 280.

Ricky Barnum (RS Freshman) - a highly regarded interior OL prospect from Florida who also has a lot of buzz surrounding his play in practice this fall. He also started on the small size at 6'2", 265 lbs, but should be stronger next year. He might be hard to keep off the field.

Dann O'Neill (RS Freshman) - the star of Michigan's OL recruiting last year, he's a future OT but is still learning the finer points of blocking. Not sure if he'll be polished enough to start next year over some very experienced competition, but should be a very good one long term.

Rocko Khoury (RS Freshman) - gotta love a kid named Rocko. He has a big frame at 6'5" and 280 lbs and will be fighting for PT alongside everybody else.

Kurt Wermers (RS Freshman) - another solid interior OL prospect that will fight for PT. Starting to get the sense that Michigan might have a better OL next year????

The OL struggled mightily at times in 2008, but in 2009 they should be infinitely better. For one thing, the entire line basically returns intact. They also add a boatload of redshirt freshman that spent the year doing what true freshmen linemen do (getting bigger). I imagine maybe 1 or 2 of the freshman will become starters and everybody else should be better than they were this year. If nothing else, the competition will at least give the coaches choices of who to play instead of dragging players over from the DL to fill spots.


On the whole, I think we will see major improvements on offense in 2009. And considering the sad state of affairs in 2008 that is a good thing. The QB and OL positions in particular figure to see major improvements from a combination of maturing of last year's starters combined with a massive influx of talent to the positions. When you add in an extra year of familiarity with the new offense and it won't be a stretch to see them scoring 30+ points with regularity. At the bare minimum, they should have an average offense in the conference and not be fighting for dead last in most categories.


On a more personal note, Goalline Blitz is damn addictive.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

A New Hope

This post has been a long time coming. Sorry about that. I've been way too busy with work and personal life to spend much time on the net the last few months. Throw in that this is generally my blogging down time anyway and it's a recipe for a nonexistant blog.

Anyways, I'm starting to turn my attention towards college football once again. We aren't that far off from August and the clock is going to start ticking towards opening kickoff. I'm excited for Michigan football. Not excited in the sense that I get excited for Michigan football every year, but excited to watch something different. The last time there was this much change in Ann Arbor, Bo Schembechler had just been hired and brighter days were on the horizon.

What this post isn't going to be: bragging up Rich Rodriguez as the greatest coach ever, talking about Michigan being unbeatable, etc.

What is it about? Reasons for hope and excitement and enthusiasm. Reasons why Michigan might be on the brink of something special. I'm not talking about winning a national title this year. It isn't going happen. You don't lose Chad Henne and Mike Hart and Jake Long and Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington and several other starters and completely change the offense and then when a national championship. It doesn't happen. Heck, I'm probably not even talking about winning a Big Ten championship this year.

What I am talking about is a change in the culture of Michigan football that will hopefully pay long term dividends and put Michigan back atop the Big Ten conference for the forseeable future and end Ohio State's run of Big Ten titles.

On to some specifics...

Michigan's offense had become stagnant. They basically ran the same offense for the past 10-15+ years without a whole lot of change. Some details came and went such as the HB screen and the zone blocking scheme. But in general, it was the exact same sets and the exact same play calls. Watching Mike Hart run behind Jake Long for the 250th time last year got to be a bit predictable considering he had already done it 700 other times in his career. I think in a lot of ways, the overall consistency from year to year made them easy for opponents to game plan for. You knew what you had to defend and even if Michigan had better players, you had a little bit better chance of slowing them down.

Some people like to think Rich Rodriguez runs some kind of funky run and shoot offense that won't sit well in the Big Ten and bad weather. But honestly, he likes to run the ball as much as anybody else. I refuse to drag up a bunch of stats for this post, but his rushing offense was always dominant at West Virginia despite having a bunch of 2 and 3 star recruits running it. Two things that I absolutely love about Rodriguez's offensive philosophy. For one, he's flexible. When he had Shaun King at Tulane, they lit it up through the air with a dynamic passing game. When he got stuck with Pat White who couldn't throw the ball more than 15 yards in a spiral, he ran the ball heavily. I also love the idea of spreading out the defense and forcing them to play in space. As far as I can tell, Rodriguez wants to have a boat load of fast and talented TBs and slot WRs and outside WRs and force the defense into bad matchups that they can't win. He'd rather run the ball against a 5 man box than an 8 man box. He'd rather throw a swing pass to a blazing fast smurf matched up with an OLB or SS than a swing pass to a fullback. He also doesn't huddle much, forcing the defense to not substitute and get winded. Which brings me to conditioning....

Michigan's strength and conditioning had gotten stale under Mike Gittleson. I guess that is bound to happen when one guy runs the show for 25 odd years. Mike Barwis is winning a lot of support from players claiming to already be in the best shape of their lives after a few weeks with him to former players and current pros beating down the door to come for voluntary offseason workouts. The somewhat realistic hope from all this is pretty simple. Michigan fans and foes will tell you that they can recruit with the best in the country and have for years. But now you will be seeing these players getting even faster and even stronger which should create an even bigger advantage on the field for Michigan.

I'm not going to lie. This year is going to be ugly at times on offense. Steven Threet is a very talented QB, but he isn't going to kill people running the zone read option. Rodriguez is going to have to get creative to consistently move the ball. He'll have a deep and talented group of backs and receivers to work with, but inexperience abounds on the offensive line and under center. It will be a little frustrating at times to watch them run the ball from the shotgun on 3rd and one with four wide receivers and get stuffed at the line. But it will be exciting to see them break the same play for a 50 yard touchdown other times.

But deep down, the idea of Michigan forcing opponents to try to match up with superior athletes across the field and spreading the ball to all of them is exciting.

Defensively, I really like the hire Rodriguez made with Scott Shafer. He has made quite the name for himself at previous stops with Stanford and Western Michigan for loving to create havoc in the backfield. Expect to see Michigan blitzing heavily this fall and relying on outstanding CBs to hold their own in man coverage. With a young offense, it will be up to them to force some turnovers and get some short fields to work with.

I could go on. I probably will at some point. But blogging will still be pretty light until college football season revs up again. Either that or if the Tigers get red hot and pique my interest. Until then, I'm watching the Red Wings.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Don't Let the Door Hit You

Justin Boren, junior G/C to be, has left the Michigan football team. Jeremy Ciulla and Alex Mitchell are also offensive linemen that have left the team since Lloyd Carr retired and Rich Rodriguez was hired.

Apparently, Justin has his reasons.

"Michigan football was a family, built on mutual respect and support for each other from Coach Carr on down. We knew it took the entire family, a team effort, and we all worked together. I have great trouble accepting that those family values have eroded in just a few months. That same helmet, that I was raised on and proudly claimed for the last two years, now brings a completely different emotion to me, one that interferes with practicing and playing my best and mentally preparing for what is required.



Two weeks ago, Justin was complaining about how hard it was adapting to the new offense...

The toughest thing, Boren said, is getting comfortable with the lightning-quick pace of the no-huddle attack relied upon by Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee.

"You've gotta be in damn good shape," he said. "This no-huddle is hard."


All this reminds me of a few tidbits from John U. Bacon's book



The player interviews were nothing compared to the shock they got once we started working out...in January. The rap on these guys around the league was that they were soft. And man, that's a terrible thing to hear. You can call one of my teams slow, short and weak with terrible coaching--but don't ever tell me my team is soft. We were going to fix that, too. As soon as I arrived, we set up a rather--shall we say--demanding off-season regimen...


We lost a few players during the winter workouts, but not many. I'm sure they figured we couldn't possibly run as much during spring ball--and they were right. In spring ball, we focused on hitting--every day, every session, full pads--and that's when guys really started dropping. In the middle of one of these sessions, when guys were dropping ten pounds of sweat blocking and tackling, you could see some of them look longingly at that damn track. It suddenly seemed like an oasis. Things got so hard that I had to put up that famous sing, "THOSE WHO STAY WILL BE CHAMPIONS." If you toughed it out, you'd be rewarded. I gave my word. Well, not everyone stayed, of course. We probably lost twenty or thirty guys. Some of them came to my office to quite face-to-face, and some just disappeared, never to be seen again.


I was prepared for some attrition. I can honestly say we did not lose a guy who really could have helped us. I didn't lose any sleep over anyone who quit that spring.



Does any of that sound a little similar to what Rich Rodriguez had to say about Boren leaving?

"Justin Boren has decided not to play," Rodriguez said. "I don't know if we'll have any more (attrition), but we're forging ahead with guys that play for Michigan."
Seems to me that Rich Rodriguez is working the team harder than they've ever been worked before and some players aren't up to it. Best of luck to them wherever they go, but the team will be much stronger for it in the end.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Justin Verlander

There has been a lot said about the Tigers offense in 2008 and how many runs they might score. Some say 1000 is not out of the question, I say they are on crack. 900 isn't out of the question, though, and they should definitely have one of the 3 or 4 highest scoring teams in the majors. But what about the pitching? Let's start with the brightest of the Tigers pitching stars.

You know the name, you know the game: Justin Verlander

He just turned 25 a few weeks ago, yet his career list of accomplishments is already growing to be quite impressive.
  • 2nd overall pick out of Old Dominion in the 2004 draft
  • 2006 American League rookie of the year
  • 2007 American All Star
  • 7th place in the 2006 American League Cy Young voting
  • 5th place in the 2007 American League Cy Young voting
  • Highest W/L percentage in the American League in 2007
  • First Detroit Tiger to pitch a no hitter since 1984
  • Started 2 games in the 2006 World Series
But beyond just the anecdotes and traditional stats, Verlander has been putting together quite the meteoric rise up the MLB pitching heirarchy. Consider his improvements from 2005 (spot callup starts) to 2006 (rookie season) to 2007 (full blown ace):


Wins and Losses
2005: 0-2
2006: 17-9
2007: 18-6

ERA
2005: 7.15
2006: 3.63
2007: 3.66

Batting Average Allowed
2005: .313
2006: .266
2007: .233

On Base Percentage Allowed
2005: .389
2006: .328
2007: .309

Slugging Percentage Allowed
2005: .479
2006: .414
2007: .358

Strikeouts per 9 IP
2005: 5.56
2006: 6.00
2007: 8.17

Strikeout to Walk Ratio
2005: 1.40
2006: 2.07
2007: 2.73

Home Runs per 9 IP
2005: 0.77
2006: 1.02
2007: 0.89


What's not to love about this kid's career trajectory? He is consistently improving his numbers across the board showing better control and more strikeouts and allowing fewer baserunners and fewer hard hit balls. He just turned 25 and has superstardom ahead of him. Considering the offensive support he is likely to garner this year, he must be considered amongst the favorites to win the Cy Young in 2008.

A guess at some not out of the question numbers for Justin Verlander in 2008:

32 starts, 210 innings, 22-6, 3.11 ERA, 230 strikeouts, 70 walks


Heck, 23 or 24 wins isn't out of the question for this kid with a high scoring offense backing him up, especially with his skyrocketing strikeout rate. Did you know that from June 1st on last year, his K rate jumped from 6.62 to 8.96? Yep, he started out slowly but then posted a number of big K games.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Slow start to 2008

So it's been a slow start to 2008 for blogging. Guess I've been too busy (minor understatement). But spring is here and spring training is under way. Detroit made a splash this offseason by acquiring Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins, a move which instantly put them as one of the World Series favorites this year. Everybody knows Miguel Cabrera is a great hitter, but just how great? Consider this...


  • he doesn't turn 25 until April, having already played 4.5 seasons in the majors
  • 4 straight seasons of 100+ RBI
  • 3 seasons of 100+ runs scored
  • 3 straight .300+ batting average seasons
  • 3 seasons of 30+ home runs
  • 4 straight All Star game appearances
  • 3 straight seasons in the top 10 in intentional walks
Of Cabrera's 10 most similar hitters through age 24 according to Baseball-Reference, 9 are either in the Hall of Fame (Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Medwick, Al Kaline, and Mickey Mantle) or soon to be (Ken Griffey Jr, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero).

And he's just now starting to get serious about playing baseball? Watch out American League.

Over the last three seasons, from age 22-24, Cabrera put up a batting line of .327/.405/.564 which is out of this world for somebody so young. For comparison, Albert Pujols hit .334/.416/.628 at the same age in a better hitters park and he's one of the all time greats at that age.

He's that good and he's that young. The sky is the limit for this kid and he's easily the best young hitter the Tigers have had since I've been alive and probably since most fans today have been alive. Hopefully they can lock him up for the long term.